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Arkansas State Red Wolves 11-13
@
2020-11-26
Central Arkansas Bears 5-19

Model Predictions

Model Arkansas Sta... Central Arka... Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 69.8% (#207) 30.2% (#329) Arkansa... -6.9 74-67
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 62.3% (#246) 37.7% (#323) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 69.1% (#254) 30.9% (#321) Arkansa... -4.4 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 73.8% (#211) 26.2% (#331) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 74.6% (#258) 25.4% (#321) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 74.5% (#258) 25.5% (#320) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 58.0% (#256) 42.0% (#322) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Arkansas Sta... Central Arka...
Games 23 21
PPG 72.7 70.8
FG% 45.0% 44.0%
3PT% 37.9% 36.3%
FT% 72.6% 70.2%
RPG 36.7 37.0
APG 14.5 13.7
SPG 6.5 5.1
BPG 2.8 2.9
TOPG 13.0 17.9

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Arkansas Sta... Central Arka...
Adj. Off Eff 95.5 91.3
Adj. Def Eff 104.5 108.7
Adj. Net Eff -9.1 -17.3

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Arkansas State Red Wolves Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
M. Eaton 14.1 3.1 5.0 1.0 0.3 31.7
C. Fields 11.0 3.1 3.5 0.9 0.0 29.9
Norchad Omier 12.4 12.0 0.7 1.1 1.4 26.4
C. Willis 7.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 22.9
K. Wesley 7.5 4.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 21.9

Central Arkansas Bears Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
R. Bergersen 16.6 4.1 4.9 1.4 0.5 34.4
E. Kayouloud 10.7 5.3 2.3 0.9 0.2 28.1
DeAndre Jones 11.5 3.5 3.8 1.4 0.1 28.0
C. Cooper 10.8 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.0 25.4
K. Bennett 9.2 4.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 24.8