🐻⬇️🏀

Texas Tech Red Raiders 18-11
@
2021-01-20
TCU Horned Frogs 12-14

Model Predictions

Model Texas Tech R... TCU Horned Frogs Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 74.6% (#17) 25.4% (#126) Texas T... -8.6 75-66
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 65.4% (#35) 34.6% (#146) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 90.6% (#15) 9.4% (#137) Texas T... -12.5 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 68.8% (#21) 31.2% (#253) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 92.7% (#10) 7.3% (#129) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 92.8% (#10) 7.2% (#129) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 73.3% (#13) 26.7% (#151) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Texas Tech R... TCU Horned Frogs
Games 8 9
PPG 78.9 57.2
FG% 46.4% 39.9%
3PT% 39.0% 32.4%
FT% 72.5% 64.4%
RPG 38.0 31.6
APG 16.6 11.4
SPG 8.6 5.7
BPG 4.1 2.0
TOPG 9.9 16.7

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Texas Tech R... TCU Horned Frogs
Adj. Off Eff 112.0 101.6
Adj. Def Eff 88.0 98.4
Adj. Net Eff 23.9 3.3

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Texas Tech Red Raiders Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Kyler Edwards 10.3 4.8 2.8 1.0 0.5 31.0
Kevin McCullar Jr. 10.2 6.5 2.1 1.7 0.9 30.3
Mac McClung 15.5 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.3 29.9
Terrence Shannon Jr. 12.7 4.0 1.4 1.1 0.1 26.3
Player #4278420 8.2 6.4 1.5 0.8 0.8 23.1

TCU Horned Frogs Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
RJ Nembhard 13.6 4.7 4.0 0.8 0.2 34.9
Mike Miles Jr. 13.5 3.5 3.0 1.0 0.2 32.8
PJ Fuller II 4.9 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 24.7
K. Samuel 7.2 5.7 0.5 1.1 1.1 23.3
F. Farabello 5.0 1.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 21.7