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2025-12-22

Model Predictions

Model Portland Pilots UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Spread Result
Elo 36.1% 63.9% -
Bradley-Terry 34.0% 66.0% -
Margin 22.8% 77.2% +6.7 (11.3 off)
Pythagorean 28.7% 71.3% -
Efficiency 1.0% 99.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 27.9% 72.1% -
Log Adjusted 27.8% 72.2% -
Points Off/Def 35.3% 64.7% -

Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos +18 (79-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Portland Pilots

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
C. Williams 33 4-7 0-0 2-2 7 0 0 0 4 10 6 -17.7
J. Foxwell 30 2-8 1-4 0-0 3 7 0 0 1 5 6 -21.1
M. Ballew 29 2-10 2-7 1-1 0 0 2 0 0 7 -1 -11.1
T. George 24 4-7 0-0 1-2 4 2 0 1 1 9 8 -14.7
J. O'Donnell 22 6-9 0-0 3-5 1 0 0 2 2 15 7 -9.6
M. Hronsky 19 2-4 0-2 0-0 3 1 2 0 2 4 4 -1.2
J. Ballisager Webb 18 2-5 0-1 0-1 4 0 0 0 2 4 1 -8.9
G. Nuckolls 18 3-4 1-2 0-0 3 1 0 0 2 7 5 +5.2
D. Censori-Hercules 7 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.6

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
C. Shaw 34 4-6 2-3 0-1 0 11 2 0 1 10 16 +12.7
A. Mahaney 30 5-9 4-7 1-2 3 3 1 0 1 15 12 +15.9
C. Smith 29 4-7 3-4 1-1 4 3 0 0 2 12 10 +20.1
Z. Sensley 23 2-7 1-3 0-0 4 2 2 0 0 5 6 +16.0
E. Kipruto 19 5-7 0-0 2-4 8 0 1 1 2 12 13 +18.8
M. McGhee IV 18 1-6 1-5 0-0 2 0 2 0 3 3 -2 +10.1
H. Kitenge 17 6-6 1-1 1-1 2 1 1 1 2 14 11 +0.9
Z. Clark 14 2-6 2-5 0-0 3 0 1 0 0 6 4 +0.4
M. Simcoe 10 1-2 0-1 0-0 3 2 0 0 1 2 4 -4.3
K. Keat Tong 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -3.2
L. Zuffelato 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -4.1

* = starter