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2026-03-05

Model Predictions

Model UT Arlington Mavericks Tarleton State Texans Spread Result
Elo 71.1% 28.9% -
Bradley-Terry 55.0% 45.0% -
Margin 55.3% 44.7% -1.2 (3.8 off)
Pythagorean 54.1% 45.9% -
Efficiency 92.8% 7.2% -
Adjusted Efficiency 63.8% 36.2% -
Log Adjusted 63.8% 36.2% -
Points Off/Def 50.2% 49.8% -

Actual: Tarleton State Texans -5 (60-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.

UT Arlington Mavericks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Lowery 36 5-11 2-7 4-6 4 1 3 0 4 16 9 -
R. Seamster 31 1-5 0-2 3-4 6 1 1 1 0 5 9 -
C. Chavis 29 8-13 2-3 0-0 1 2 1 0 2 18 7 -
C. Jackson 24 1-2 0-0 2-2 2 1 0 2 0 4 7 -
B. Laster 24 0-1 0-1 11-12 7 2 0 1 1 11 19 -
M. McCreary 20 0-5 0-4 2-2 4 0 0 0 2 2 -1 -
A. Reed 13 1-1 0-0 2-2 3 0 0 1 1 4 6 -
T. Mason 11 0-1 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 -
M. Rigsby Jr. 9 2-5 1-4 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 5 1 -
M. Goodman 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Tarleton State Texans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
F. Hicks 34 0-5 0-0 2-4 4 2 1 1 0 2 5 -
J. Mizell 32 3-7 0-1 0-0 3 4 0 0 1 6 5 -
D. Johnson 30 8-16 2-4 10-11 3 0 2 0 5 28 12 -
L. Kelly IV 24 0-2 0-2 2-3 3 1 1 0 0 2 5 -
C. Mpaka 23 3-6 0-0 2-7 8 0 0 1 1 8 10 -
O. Owens 20 2-4 1-2 0-0 2 0 0 0 1 5 2 -
K. Isaac 16 1-3 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 2 2 -2 -
K. Douglas 11 0-1 0-1 1-4 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1 -
D. Dormu 10 2-3 0-0 2-2 0 1 1 0 0 6 5 -

* = starter