Model Predictions
| Model | California Baptist Lancers | Tarleton State Texans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 84.8% | 15.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.4% | 22.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 71.6% | 28.4% | -5.1 | ✗ (10.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 94.7% | 5.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.9% | 21.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.0% | 21.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Tarleton State Texans +5 (81-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
California Baptist Lancers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Daniels Jr. | 42 | 7-15 | 1-4 | 10-12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 14 | -7.0 |
| J. Jackson | 35 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | -3.8 |
| B. Henige | 34 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | +3.2 |
| R. D'Amelio | 25 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 17 | -6.4 |
| J. Muller | 25 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | +2.6 |
| M. Daniels | 18 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | -10.2 |
| M. Williams | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -3.1 |
| J. Griman | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +3.8 |
| T. Ndong | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -11.2 |
| D. Malcolm | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -7.1 |
Tarleton State Texans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Hicks | 45 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 8-12 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 13 | +8.5 |
| J. Mizell | 37 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | +9.9 |
| L. Kelly IV | 32 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | +4.7 |
| D. Johnson | 29 | 9-15 | 1-1 | 15-20 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 23 | +10.1 |
| O. Owens | 29 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +6.1 |
| K. Douglas | 22 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | -1.4 |
| K. Isaac | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +12.0 |
| C. Mpaka | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.9 |
| A. Sigiscar | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2.0 |
| D. Dormu | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -8.0 |
* = starter