Xavier Musketeers
Model Outputs
2004-2005
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1276 (#26) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1213 (#49) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1128 (#34) | HCA +92 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +15.4 (#39) | HCA +3.6 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +16.0 (#39) | HCA +3.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.855 (#34) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.937 (#41) | AdjNet +23.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.939 (#41) | AdjNet +23.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.787 (#40) | AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 54.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.739 (#26) | AdjO 68.6 | AdjD 57.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.846 (#36) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.839 (#34) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1214 (#43) | RD 102 | GP 32 |
2005 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-11-19 | @ | Florida State Seminoles | L | 48 - 56 |
| 2004-11-26 | vs | Western Illinois Leathernecks | W | 64 - 52 |
| 2004-11-27 | vs | Auburn Tigers | L | 53 - 55 |
| 2004-12-04 | vs | Maryland Terrapins | L | 72 - 74 |
| 2004-12-06 | @ | Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | W | 68 - 50 |
| 2004-12-11 | @ | Cincinnati Bearcats | W | 85 - 50 |
| 2004-12-18 | vs | Akron Zips | W | 70 - 54 |
| 2004-12-22 | vs | Louisville Cardinals | L | 61 - 64 |
| 2004-12-28 | vs | Kentucky Wildcats | W | 75 - 67 |
| 2004-12-31 | vs | Youngstown State Penguins | W | 67 - 57 |
| 2005-01-03 | @ | Dayton Flyers | W | 64 - 51 |
| 2005-01-06 | @ | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L | 58 - 64 |
| 2005-01-09 | vs | Duquesne Dukes | W | 81 - 60 |
| 2005-01-14 | vs | Rhode Island Rams | W | 77 - 38 |
| 2005-01-16 | vs | George Washington Revolutionaries | W | 57 - 42 |
| 2005-01-21 | @ | Saint Joseph's Hawks | W | 72 - 55 |
| 2005-01-23 | @ | La Salle Explorers | W | 66 - 55 |
| 2005-01-27 | vs | Dayton Flyers | W | 73 - 54 |
| 2005-01-30 | @ | Temple Owls | L | 62 - 64 |
| 2005-02-04 | @ | Duquesne Dukes | W | 88 - 68 |
| 2005-02-06 | @ | Richmond Spiders | L | 65 - 72 |
| 2005-02-11 | vs | La Salle Explorers | W | 70 - 45 |
| 2005-02-13 | vs | Massachusetts Minutewomen | W | 65 - 55 |
| 2005-02-18 | @ | Fordham Rams | W | 59 - 57 |
| 2005-02-20 | @ | George Washington Revolutionaries | L | 66 - 75 |
| 2005-02-25 | vs | Richmond Spiders | W | 66 - 64 |
| 2005-02-27 | vs | St. Bonaventure Bonnies | W | 75 - 43 |
| 2005-03-05 | vs | Massachusetts Minutewomen | W | 69 - 46 |
| 2005-03-06 | @ | Temple Owls | L | 61 - 64 |
| 2005-03-16 | @ | Western Kentucky Lady Toppers | W | 87 - 85 |
| 2005-03-21 | @ | Indiana State Sycamores | W | 79 - 70 |
| 2005-03-24 | @ | Kentucky Wildcats | L | 62 - 67 |
2005 Roster
No roster data available for this season.