Winthrop
Model Outputs
2003-2004
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and includes an unverified participant universe. |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1253 (#194) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1004 (#155) | HCA +114 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +21.5 (#243) | HCA +3.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -6.1 (#245) | HCA +3.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.453 (#195) | AdjO 62.6 | AdjD 64.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.386 (#220) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.395 (#216) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 945 (#195) | RD 164 | GP 26 |
2004 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-11-21 | @ | Kentucky | L | 44 - 65 |
| 2003-12-02 | vs | Eastern Kentucky | W | 67 - 66 |
| 2003-12-05 | vs | Samford | L | 64 - 66 |
| 2003-12-06 | vs | Hampton | W | 84 - 74 |
| 2003-12-09 | @ | Georgia | W | 80 - 60 |
| 2003-12-20 | @ | Wyoming | L | 49 - 79 |
| 2003-12-22 | @ | Weber State | L | 67 - 69 |
| 2003-12-29 | N | Western Michigan | L | 71 - 76 |
| 2003-12-30 | N | San Diego | W | 70 - 66 |
| 2004-01-03 | vs | Birmingham-Southern | L | 54 - 61 |
| 2004-01-05 | vs | Radford | W | 78 - 76 |
| 2004-01-08 | @ | High Point | L | 62 - 77 |
| 2004-01-10 | vs | VMI | W | 78 - 62 |
| 2004-01-14 | @ | UNC Asheville | W | 76 - 62 |
| 2004-01-17 | @ | Coastal Carolina | W | 66 - 65 |
| 2004-01-21 | vs | Charleston Southern | W | 68 - 50 |
| 2004-01-24 | @ | Birmingham-Southern | L | 69 - 70 |
| 2004-01-29 | @ | Liberty | L | 50 - 66 |
| 2004-01-31 | @ | VMI | L | 61 - 68 |
| 2004-02-04 | vs | Coastal Carolina | W | 51 - 50 |
| 2004-02-07 | @ | Radford | W | 53 - 52 |
| 2004-02-11 | vs | High Point | W | 78 - 67 |
| 2004-02-18 | vs | Liberty | L | 62 - 74 |
| 2004-02-21 | @ | Charleston Southern | W | 72 - 48 |
| 2004-02-28 | vs | UNC Asheville | W | 75 - 68 |
| 2004-03-02 | vs | UNC Asheville | L | 46 - 49 |
2004 Roster
Minutes by Position
Not enough player minute data to plot.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Walker | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Marcus Cooke | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| James Shuler | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Billy Houston | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Torrell Martin | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Brandon Key | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Phillip Williams | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Alex Spotts | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Josh Grant | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Craig Bradshaw | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Ivan Jenkins | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gabe Leventis | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Elijah Holland | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jerry Richi | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG