William Woods
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 962 (#442) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 892 (#505) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 872 (#704) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -16.4 (#632) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.382 (#543) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.073 (#671) | AdjNet -22.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.069 (#671) | AdjNet -22.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.175 (#675) | AdjO 63.1 | AdjD 80.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.293 (#677) | AdjO 63.8 | AdjD 73.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.192 (#667) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.200 (#675) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 815 (#543) | RD 100 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Bridgewater (VA) | L | 70 - 76 |
| 2025-11-09 | vs | JWU Charlotte | W | 69 - 57 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | Oglethorpe | W | 71 - 67 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Mid-Atlantic Christ. | W | 80 - 78 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Regent | W | 104 - 57 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Averett | L | 60 - 83 |
| 2025-12-02 | @ | JWU Charlotte | W | 79 - 60 |
| 2025-12-07 | vs | Warren Wilson | W | 78 - 61 |
| 2025-12-12 | @ | UNC Greensboro | L | 62 - 90 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Regent | W | 77 - 67 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | East. Mennonite | L | 54 - 68 |
| 2025-12-31 | vs | Piedmont | L | 57 - 72 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Randolph | L | 72 - 82 |
| 2026-01-05 | vs | Westminster (MO) | L | 70 - 73 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Greensboro | L | 59 - 64 |
| 2026-01-09 | vs | Mary Baldwin | L | 55 - 65 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Southern Va. | L | 66 - 81 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Methodist | L | 55 - 67 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Brevard | L | 59 - 68 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | N.C. Wesleyan | L | 77 - 85 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Methodist | W | 75 - 73 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Pfeiffer | L | 69 - 79 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Mary Baldwin | W | 71 - 56 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Gohring | - | 1 | 33.0 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 27 | 1.4 | 7.6 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 80.0 | -0.01 | 46.9 | 36.1 |
| Kilian Brockhoff | - | 1 | 12.2 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 20.0 | - | - | - | 88.9 | 80.0 | 0 | - | 111.1 | 111.1 |
| Kyle Frazier | - | 1 | 23.3 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 50.0 | 66.7 | - | 78.1 | 78.6 |
| Parker Hodgson | - | 19 | 31.8 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 10.7 | 11.0 | -30 | -1.7 | -9.3 | 41.4 | 26.8 | 78.6 | -0.64 | 52.4 | 46.8 |
| Cade Haskins | - | 1 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 33.3 | 100.0 | - | 55.8 | 44.4 |
| Elijah Cathcart | - | 17 | 25.6 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 4.1 | -78 | -5.2 | -42.1 | 38.2 | 34.7 | 88.2 | -0.22 | 54.1 | 51.9 |
| Shawn Jones | - | 21 | 29.1 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 15 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 44.2 | 25.9 | 59.0 | 1.09 | 51.9 | 48.5 |
| Gavin Hendrix | - | 1 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 13.0 | -46 | -2.9 | -22.5 | 60.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -1.63 | 74.0 | 60.0 |
| Chase Lowe | - | 1 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 0.0 | 66.7 | - | 60.1 | 57.1 |
| Kaleb Spencer | - | 1 | 16.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 23.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 72.7 | 75.0 |
| Elijah Green | - | 20 | 26.4 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 21 | 1.1 | 7.0 | 35.1 | 35.6 | 74.5 | 1.1 | 49.0 | 44.6 |
| Jamile Johnson | - | 1 | 26.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | -54 | -2.7 | -18.7 | 57.1 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.12 | 57.1 | 57.1 |
| Sean LeRose | - | 1 | 30.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | -37 | -2.1 | -16.0 | 42.9 | 50.0 | 100.0 | -0.41 | 57.1 | 50.0 |
| Ryan Jackson, Jr. | - | 1 | 22.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 42 | 2.3 | 11.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 66.7 | 1.15 | 104.2 | 116.7 |
| Reese Miller | - | 1 | 14.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3 | 0.4 | 26.2 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.28 | 69.9 | 66.7 |
| Tyler Whitehurst | - | 15 | 27.2 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 14 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 43.2 | 41.0 | 68.4 | -1.13 | 58.0 | 56.3 |
| Kolton Garner | - | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -20 | -1.0 | -7.2 | 33.3 | 40.0 | 100.0 | -1.15 | 58.1 | 50.0 |
| Roman Philips | - | 1 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -44 | -2.6 | -31.3 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Kyle Pulliam | - | 1 | 14.2 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 25.0 | 100.0 | - | 63.3 | 50.0 |
| Chuks Ezeonu | - | 21 | 22.2 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 7.8 | -3 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 66.3 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.24 | 64.4 | 66.3 |
| Carlitos Sanchez | - | 1 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 10 | 0.6 | 6.2 | 50.0 | 0 | 57.1 | 0.15 | 59.1 | 50.0 |
| Jo'el Emanuel | - | 1 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 45.0 | 50.0 |
| Jhei-R Jones | - | 1 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 140 | 7.0 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.66 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Sully Caruso | - | 18 | 17.1 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 6.4 | -25 | -1.6 | -96.9 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 1.08 | 51.8 | 50.9 |
| Ryan Lominack | - | 20 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.2 | -0.1 | 4 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 26.5 | 27.4 | 81.8 | 0.35 | 39.8 | 36.7 |
| Dalton Johnson | - | 21 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | -52 | -2.7 | -64.1 | 40.3 | 23.1 | 84.6 | -0.14 | 48.8 | 44.8 |
| Jordan Kearney | - | 15 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 14 | 1.1 | 89.6 | 45.9 | 26.7 | 91.7 | -0.24 | 57.9 | 51.4 |
| Colin Ndaw | - | 1 | 13.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 31.5 | 0.0 |
| Grant Overman | - | 20 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 3 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 62.1 | 0 | 43.5 | -2.04 | 58.8 | 62.1 |
| Kobe Jones | - | 1 | 24.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 | -17 | -4.2 | -9.1 | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.16 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi | - | 1 | 18.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 17.0 | 20.0 |
| Jordan Richardson | - | 11 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | -18 | -2.0 | -83.2 | 25.0 | 27.8 | 100.0 | 0.44 | 38.2 | 35.4 |
| Larry Blount | - | 6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 69.4 | 75.0 |
| Junior Young | - | 7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.22 | 26.6 | 0.0 |
| Aidan Temple | - | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 14 | 0.9 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tyler Alston | - | 6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG