🐻⬇️🏀

William Smith

Also known as: William Smith
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 908 (#395) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 823 (#524) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 800 (#690) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -16.3 (#333) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -15.0 (#555) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.083 (#642) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -17.7 More → 0.071 (#503) NetEff -17.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.0 More → 0.073 (#567) AdjNet -22.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.0 More → 0.068 (#566) AdjNet -22.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 69.6 More → 0.216 (#561) AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 69.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 54.2 | AdjD 65.1 More → 0.271 (#623) AdjO 54.2 | AdjD 65.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.153 (#632) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.160 (#633) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 108 | GP 21 More → 718 (#530) RD 108 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-18 vs SUNY Geneseo L 53 - 82
2025-11-21 @ SUNY Brockport L 66 - 86
2025-11-22 @ Fredonia L 55 - 62
2025-11-25 @ Rochester (NY) L 52 - 83
2025-12-09 vs Ithaca L 40 - 81
2025-12-20 @ FDU-Florham W 65 - 63
2026-01-10 vs RIT L 39 - 68
2026-01-13 @ Ithaca L 57 - 66
2026-01-16 @ Clarkson L 57 - 66
2026-01-17 @ St. Lawrence W 60 - 56
2026-01-23 vs Union (NY) L 45 - 77
2026-01-24 vs Rensselaer L 50 - 68
2026-01-30 @ RIT L 67 - 86
2026-01-31 @ Skidmore L 39 - 62
2026-02-06 @ Rensselaer L 46 - 58
2026-02-07 @ Union (NY) L 52 - 70

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Giana Lobozzo - 16 29.0 11.2 5.6 2.0 2.3 0.5 3.7 13.8 4.1 -107 -5.3 -32.1 30.9 22.1 45.3 -1.01 36.8 35.2
Amelia McCulley - 14 22.7 9.4 3.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.8 8.9 5.1 -49 -3.1 -22.0 33.6 34.0 81.6 1.39 46.6 40.4
Ava Lobozzo - 16 18.1 7.6 3.7 1.0 1.1 0.0 3.4 7.3 2.7 -81 -4.0 -36.0 40.2 38.5 61.1 0.08 45.5 42.3
Mckenzie Mandyck - 16 23.8 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.6 5.2 3.1 -85 -4.2 -29.1 30.1 27.1 66.7 -0.82 42.2 38.0
Jojo Sulmasy - 16 18.4 4.4 3.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.4 4.8 3.6 -101 -5.0 -37.5 36.4 0.0 63.6 -1.32 40.4 36.4
Carly Scott - 16 22.1 4.3 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.1 5.4 1.6 -95 -4.8 -31.3 26.7 26.7 75.0 0.04 39.3 38.4
Dani Krenzer - 14 11.8 4.1 3.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 2.1 3.3 3.3 2 0.1 1.0 43.5 36.4 82.4 0.8 54.2 47.8
Miranda Martin - 16 16.6 3.5 2.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.1 4.8 1.4 -62 -3.1 -26.4 27.3 20.0 42.1 -0.51 32.8 31.2
Bridget McCleary - 16 17.0 2.7 4.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 1.2 4.4 3.8 -31 -1.6 -15.8 21.1 11.8 73.3 -2.94 27.7 22.5
Eily Hubler - 12 8.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 -40 -2.5 -26.9 41.2 33.3 0 -1.6 50.0 50.0
Kira Ostovar - 16 16.4 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.6 2.1 2.2 -45 -2.2 -16.7 23.5 27.3 0 -3.13 27.9 27.9
Ella Pysnack - 4 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.2 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Anne Keneally - 3 6.9 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.3 -2.3 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG