William Smith
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 908 (#395) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 823 (#524) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 800 (#690) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -16.3 (#333) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -15.0 (#555) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.083 (#642) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.071 (#503) | NetEff -17.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.073 (#567) | AdjNet -22.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.068 (#566) | AdjNet -22.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.216 (#561) | AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 69.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.271 (#623) | AdjO 54.2 | AdjD 65.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.153 (#632) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.160 (#633) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 718 (#530) | RD 108 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | vs | SUNY Geneseo | L | 53 - 82 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | SUNY Brockport | L | 66 - 86 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Fredonia | L | 55 - 62 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Rochester (NY) | L | 52 - 83 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | Ithaca | L | 40 - 81 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | FDU-Florham | W | 65 - 63 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | RIT | L | 39 - 68 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Ithaca | L | 57 - 66 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | Clarkson | L | 57 - 66 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | St. Lawrence | W | 60 - 56 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Union (NY) | L | 45 - 77 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Rensselaer | L | 50 - 68 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ | RIT | L | 67 - 86 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Skidmore | L | 39 - 62 |
| 2026-02-06 | @ | Rensselaer | L | 46 - 58 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Union (NY) | L | 52 - 70 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giana Lobozzo | - | 16 | 29.0 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 13.8 | 4.1 | -107 | -5.3 | -32.1 | 30.9 | 22.1 | 45.3 | -1.01 | 36.8 | 35.2 |
| Amelia McCulley | - | 14 | 22.7 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | -49 | -3.1 | -22.0 | 33.6 | 34.0 | 81.6 | 1.39 | 46.6 | 40.4 |
| Ava Lobozzo | - | 16 | 18.1 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | -81 | -4.0 | -36.0 | 40.2 | 38.5 | 61.1 | 0.08 | 45.5 | 42.3 |
| Mckenzie Mandyck | - | 16 | 23.8 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 3.1 | -85 | -4.2 | -29.1 | 30.1 | 27.1 | 66.7 | -0.82 | 42.2 | 38.0 |
| Jojo Sulmasy | - | 16 | 18.4 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 3.6 | -101 | -5.0 | -37.5 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 63.6 | -1.32 | 40.4 | 36.4 |
| Carly Scott | - | 16 | 22.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | -95 | -4.8 | -31.3 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 75.0 | 0.04 | 39.3 | 38.4 |
| Dani Krenzer | - | 14 | 11.8 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 43.5 | 36.4 | 82.4 | 0.8 | 54.2 | 47.8 |
| Miranda Martin | - | 16 | 16.6 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | -62 | -3.1 | -26.4 | 27.3 | 20.0 | 42.1 | -0.51 | 32.8 | 31.2 |
| Bridget McCleary | - | 16 | 17.0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 | -31 | -1.6 | -15.8 | 21.1 | 11.8 | 73.3 | -2.94 | 27.7 | 22.5 |
| Eily Hubler | - | 12 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | -40 | -2.5 | -26.9 | 41.2 | 33.3 | 0 | -1.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Kira Ostovar | - | 16 | 16.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | -45 | -2.2 | -16.7 | 23.5 | 27.3 | 0 | -3.13 | 27.9 | 27.9 |
| Ella Pysnack | - | 4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Anne Keneally | - | 3 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 | -2.3 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG