Western Ill.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1143 (#31) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1140 (#93) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1032 (#277) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1108 (#87) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.8 (#128) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +5.1 (#277) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 1.000 (#62) | - |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.911 (#234) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#29) | NetEff +85.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.999 (#51) | AdjNet +56.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.839 (#249) | AdjNet +14.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.999 (#55) | AdjNet +55.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.836 (#251) | AdjNet +13.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.987 (#13) | AdjO 104.5 | AdjD 56.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.670 (#262) | AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 56.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.719 (#108) | AdjO 64.5 | AdjD 54.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.751 (#167) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.743 (#169) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1159 (#100) | RD 109 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | vs | Westminster (MO) | W | 116 - 46 |
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Springfield | W | 67 - 55 |
| 2025-11-10 | vs | Rhode Island Col. | L | 43 - 52 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Eastern Conn. St. | W | 69 - 52 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | JWU (Providence) | L | 64 - 72 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Willamette | W | 88 - 81 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Salve Regina | W | 66 - 49 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Connecticut Col. | W | 65 - 62 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Emerson | L | 58 - 67 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Hartford | W | 74 - 62 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | U New England | L | 54 - 66 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Nichols | W | 61 - 34 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Wentworth | W | 86 - 33 |
| 2026-01-19 | @ | Amherst | L | 51 - 71 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Roger Williams | W | 51 - 41 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Hartford | L | 45 - 58 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Suffolk | W | 56 - 35 |
| 2026-02-03 | @ | Curry | W | 70 - 61 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Gordon | W | 76 - 41 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicastro | - | 1 | 20.6 | 26.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | - | 77.6 | 73.3 |
| Kylani Rookstool | - | 1 | 39.4 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 52.9 | 40.0 | 50.0 | - | 64.3 | 64.7 |
| Mya India Thomas | - | 1 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | - | - | - | 70.0 | 57.1 | 0 | - | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| Raegan McCowan | - | 1 | 20.6 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | - | - | - | 63.6 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 67.3 | 63.6 |
| Enid Vaifanua | - | 1 | 7.8 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 37.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 43.3 | 37.5 |
| Sophie Hedge | - | 17 | 28.2 | 13.6 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 149 | 7.5 | 28.8 | 40.4 | 40.2 | 85.4 | 4.75 | 55.5 | 50.8 |
| Ciona Wells | - | 1 | 37.4 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 23.5 | 22.2 | 75.0 | - | 34.6 | 29.4 |
| Mallory Shetley | - | 1 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | - | - | - | 85.7 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 82.5 | 85.7 |
| Allie Meadows | - | 1 | 22.9 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 57.1 | 66.7 | 0 | - | 85.7 | 85.7 |
| Perry Blasetti | - | 17 | 30.6 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 124 | 6.2 | 22.0 | 47.6 | 33.3 | 59.6 | 3.83 | 54.7 | 52.7 |
| Kaylen Reed | - | 1 | 21.7 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 16.0 | -19 | -0.9 | -6.5 | 66.7 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.6 | 72.7 | 66.7 |
| Kennedy Herrig | - | 1 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 80.0 | - | 95.2 | 100.0 |
| Sidney Skrobot | - | 1 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 42.9 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 50.8 | 50.0 |
| Madison Davis | - | 1 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 64 | 2.9 | 12.8 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.13 | 59.2 | 40.0 |
| Hannah Blake | - | 16 | 21.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 83 | 4.4 | 23.3 | 37.8 | 0.0 | 83.9 | -2.36 | 43.7 | 37.8 |
| Shelby Bowman | - | 1 | 17.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 42.9 | 20.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Paige Winter | - | 17 | 30.5 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 117 | 5.8 | 22.8 | 37.6 | 34.8 | 65.0 | -2.43 | 50.1 | 48.2 |
| Lottia Barnes | - | 17 | 17.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 23 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 41.4 | 22.6 | 61.5 | 0.01 | 47.5 | 44.9 |
| Danyell Booker | - | 1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Kylie Robertson | - | 1 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 50.0 | 0.0 | - | 64.4 | 83.3 |
| Olivia Chrzan | - | 12 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 37 | 2.5 | 29.1 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 55.6 | 1.97 | 39.7 | 36.4 |
| Devlyn Mcdonald | - | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 61 | 3.0 | 25.9 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | 1.73 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Natalie Brown | - | 1 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 9 | 1.5 | 229.8 | 100.0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.71 | 106.4 | 100.0 |
| Addi Brownfield | - | 1 | 22.9 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 14.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 25.4 | 14.3 |
| Katelyn Eggena | - | 1 | 16.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 28.6 | 28.6 |
| Katie Regan | - | 15 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 42 | 2.3 | 18.3 | 47.1 | 0.0 | 68.8 | 3.05 | 50.8 | 47.1 |
| Erin Reen | - | 17 | 26.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 53 | 2.6 | 10.5 | 30.5 | 20.0 | 72.2 | -1.4 | 39.6 | 33.9 |
| Salma Youngblood | - | 1 | 15.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 20.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Sarah West | - | 17 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 27 | 1.4 | 14.7 | 41.2 | 37.5 | 75.0 | -0.06 | 47.5 | 45.6 |
| Eliana Wood | - | 5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.7 | 33.8 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.29 | 68.0 | 80.0 |
| Lizzie Hansen | - | 8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.4 | 22.3 | 50.0 | 66.7 | 50.0 | 0.35 | 64.4 | 66.7 |
| Triniti Youngblood | - | 1 | 20.8 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 10.2 | 0.0 |
| Alexa Rabidoux | - | 7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 10 | 1.1 | 64.2 | 33.3 | 25.0 | 0 | -0.02 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| Gianna Strange | - | 3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 96 | 8.0 | 176.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.37 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Madison Gibbs | - | 5 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -9 | -1.5 | -76.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.29 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Destiny Mora Lopez | - | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -3 | -0.8 | -48.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.23 | 0 | 0 |
| Ainsley Holthaus | - | 1 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG