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Welch

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2019
Also known as: Welch
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1082 (#181) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1025 (#267) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -4.6 (#428) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.263 (#554) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -29.0 More → 0.033 (#626) AdjNet -29.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -29.5 More → 0.030 (#622) AdjNet -29.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 49.0 | AdjD 68.1 More → 0.149 (#629) AdjO 49.0 | AdjD 68.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.1 | AdjD 64.1 More → 0.476 (#427) AdjO 63.1 | AdjD 64.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.460 (#409) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.470 (#410) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 313 | GP 2 More → 1113 (#138) RD 313 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-17 @ Covenant W 88 - 80
2025-11-22 vs Wesleyan (GA) L 0 - 0
2025-12-13 vs Covenant W 64 - 59

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Karilyn Wieting - 2 37.5 26.5 12.0 2.5 2.0 0.0 3.5 19.5 20.0 - - - 46.2 25.0 81.2 - 57.6 51.3
Whitney Williams - 1 36.6 20.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 11.0 22.0 - - - 54.5 40.0 66.7 - 66.8 63.6
Lindsey Wright - 2 30.6 11.0 4.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 2.5 8.0 6.5 14 0.8 13.9 43.8 0.0 57.1 -0.79 49.6 43.8
Faithe Johnstone - 2 26.3 10.5 4.0 2.5 1.0 0.0 4.0 7.5 6.5 - - - 46.7 0 87.5 - 56.7 46.7
Dani Dawson - 2 25.3 8.0 9.5 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 16.5 - - - 57.1 25.0 70.0 - 70.2 64.3
Kayla Northrup - 1 35.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 8.0 5.0 - - - 37.5 50.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Jahleh Scott - 1 11.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 0.0 - - - 40.0 50.0 0 - 60.0 60.0
Caroline Watts - 2 32.0 2.0 5.0 3.5 2.0 0.0 5.5 4.5 2.5 - - - 11.1 0.0 100.0 - 20.2 11.1
Audrey Coulter - 1 11.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 - - - 25.0 0.0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Michaela Pinkerman - 1 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG