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Welch

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2022 2016
Also known as: Welch
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 836 (#587) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 814 (#578) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 942 (#613) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -16.6 (#336) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -19.3 (#676) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.187 (#673) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -24.5 More → 0.056 (#695) AdjNet -24.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -24.5 More → 0.054 (#689) AdjNet -24.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 88.4 More → 0.139 (#709) AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 88.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.4 | AdjD 81.2 More → 0.309 (#659) AdjO 72.4 | AdjD 81.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.187 (#671) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.212 (#662) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 211 | GP 6 More → 720 (#614) RD 211 | GP 6

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Webster L 66 - 82
2025-11-21 @ Huntingdon L 89 - 107
2025-11-22 vs LaGrange L 86 - 94
2025-12-08 vs Sewanee L 65 - 81
2025-12-12 vs Huntingdon W 87 - 72
2026-01-10 vs Covenant L 87 - 102

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Draven Smith - 4 31.0 21.8 4.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.8 14.5 12.5 -37 -1.8 -9.3 53.4 47.8 82.4 3.19 66.4 62.9
Fletcher Bigham - 1 34.0 21.0 21.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 19.0 25.0 16 0.8 3.3 52.6 14.3 0.0 2.1 52.8 55.3
Luuk Dusek - 1 17.0 21.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 13.0 -15 -0.8 -13.8 77.8 77.8 0 -2.81 116.7 116.7
Logan Patterson - 1 23.0 21.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 20.0 10.0 -70 -3.5 -28.3 30.0 44.4 71.4 -1.01 45.5 40.0
Tony Gaines - 3 32.7 18.0 10.3 3.3 2.7 0.7 3.7 12.3 19.0 - - - 51.4 0.0 69.6 - 57.3 51.4
Aidan Treacy - 1 28.0 15.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 12.0 -25 -1.3 -5.8 70.0 100.0 0 -1.18 75.0 75.0
Nikolas Avaliani - 1 33.0 13.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 10.0 5.0 35 1.8 7.1 50.0 33.3 50.0 2.03 55.3 55.0
Bolton Born - 1 12.0 13.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 14.0 -12 -0.7 -14.7 80.0 75.0 100.0 2.61 110.5 110.0
Isak Eriksson - 3 32.3 12.7 3.7 1.0 3.0 0.3 0.3 10.3 10.0 - - - 38.7 33.3 58.3 - 52.4 50.0
Zaimes Hall - 4 20.8 12.0 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 7.5 6.0 - - - 60.0 52.2 0.0 - 78.8 80.0
Jonah Randall - 4 29.5 8.5 4.0 3.8 1.2 0.8 1.5 7.8 9.0 76 4.8 30.1 41.9 31.6 66.7 2.02 52.6 51.6
Jack Bakken - 1 29.0 8.0 6.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 -15 -0.8 -3.3 66.7 0.0 0 -1.05 66.7 66.7
Ethan Parker - 1 16.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 5.0 -63 -3.1 -45.0 50.0 33.3 50.0 -3.22 58.1 58.3
Fisher Mitchell - 1 15.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 -56 -2.8 -42.2 33.3 40.0 0 -1.45 50.0 50.0
Jake Stephens - 1 17.0 6.0 10.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 9.0 2 0.1 1.4 42.9 0.0 0 -1.94 42.9 42.9
Clay Carter - 3 19.0 5.7 3.3 2.3 1.7 0.0 5.0 3.3 4.7 -5 -0.6 -40.1 40.0 50.0 88.9 0.83 60.9 45.0
Mcade Hall - 4 17.5 4.5 2.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.8 6.5 0.8 - - - 23.1 25.0 100.0 - 32.9 28.8
Mason Thornhill - 3 21.3 4.3 0.3 0.7 1.7 0.0 1.7 3.0 2.3 - - - 33.3 0.0 87.5 - 51.9 33.3
Noah Pence - 1 11.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 -2.0 -18 -0.9 -19.0 20.0 0.0 100.0 2.4 34.0 20.0
Philip Ryan - 1 16.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 2.0 -10 -0.5 -3.1 14.3 33.3 0 0.65 21.4 21.4
Isaac Rorey - 1 7.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 -50 -2.6 -40.3 50.0 0 0 -2.93 50.0 50.0
Cam Campbell - 3 5.3 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 -4 -0.2 -0.9 50.0 50.0 0 -4.36 75.0 75.0
Easton Truett - 3 2.7 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.7 - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 - 53.2 0.0
Gavin Goodson - 2 2.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Jacob Amonett - 1 13.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 17 0.9 12.2 0.0 0.0 0 0.92 0.0 0.0
Landon Copass - 1 9.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Blake Batts - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 14 1.4 125.8 0.0 0.0 0 0.22 0.0 0.0
Cole Carroll - 1 8.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 -1.0 -93 -4.9 -90.0 0.0 0 0 -1.02 0.0 0.0
Luke Deininger - 1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 3 0.3 23.3 0.0 0 0 0.92 0.0 0.0
Derrius Teagle - 1 8.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 -67 -3.4 -68.7 0 0 0 -0.59 0 0
James White - 1 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -25 -1.7 -122.2 0 0 0 -2.03 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG