Wartburg
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 972 (#425) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1054 (#241) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 936 (#624) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.2 (#118) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.6 (#450) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.389 (#536) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.293 (#460) | AdjNet -7.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.282 (#461) | AdjNet -8.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.387 (#444) | AdjO 72.6 | AdjD 77.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.482 (#450) | AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 75.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.428 (#458) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.425 (#465) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 973 (#404) | RD 96 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | @ | St. Olaf | W | 76 - 69 |
| 2025-11-09 | vs | Macalester | W | 86 - 67 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Concordia Wisconsin | L | 75 - 80 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Cornell College | W | 99 - 74 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Grinnell | W | 129 - 116 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Principia | W | 96 - 65 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Luther | W | 74 - 56 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Coe | W | 73 - 72 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Loras | L | 79 - 91 |
| 2025-12-15 | vs | Dominican (IL) | W | 87 - 66 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Bethany Lutheran | W | 84 - 63 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Cornell College | W | 86 - 69 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Neb. Wesleyan | L | 67 - 68 |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | Dubuque | L | 63 - 75 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Buena Vista | L | 65 - 77 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Central (IA) | L | 69 - 75 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Simpson | W | 74 - 66 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Coe | L | 55 - 62 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Luther | W | 75 - 66 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Loras | L | 90 - 111 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Dubuque | L | 81 - 90 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Neb. Wesleyan | L | 72 - 75 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Winn | - | 1 | 36.0 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 33.3 | 50.0 | - | 68.6 | 70.0 |
| Austin Bienemann | - | 21 | 32.3 | 16.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 9 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 45.7 | 27.9 | 69.5 | 0.74 | 55.2 | 51.1 |
| Ethan Yungtum | - | 21 | 29.7 | 16.0 | 11.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 16.4 | 50 | 2.4 | 9.9 | 47.4 | 34.1 | 64.8 | 1.27 | 56.7 | 53.6 |
| Cael Schramm | - | 21 | 26.7 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.2 | 13.3 | -46 | -2.2 | -10.1 | 61.3 | 0 | 57.3 | 0.22 | 62.1 | 61.3 |
| Seth Newton | - | 1 | 24.6 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 27 | 1.3 | 15.9 | 57.1 | 75.0 | 33.3 | 0.6 | 72.1 | 78.6 |
| Luke Ladwig | - | 20 | 31.3 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 38 | 1.9 | 8.2 | 40.8 | 29.6 | 50.0 | -0.81 | 47.0 | 46.0 |
| Neal Mosser | - | 1 | 21.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 28 | 1.6 | 19.2 | 57.1 | 25.0 | 0 | 1.77 | 64.3 | 64.3 |
| Nick Howard | - | 1 | 31.1 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | -7 | -0.3 | -7.8 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 62.5 | -0.05 | 53.2 | 37.5 |
| Gabe Trujillo | - | 21 | 25.8 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.9 | 20.5 | 69.4 | 0.25 | 55.2 | 52.3 |
| Drake Wemark | - | 21 | 17.7 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | 5.7 | -14 | -0.7 | -3.6 | 44.8 | 13.6 | 55.0 | 0.53 | 47.5 | 46.2 |
| Amun-Ra Collins | - | 1 | 21.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 7 | 0.3 | 10.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0.05 | 86.8 | 75.0 |
| Devin Holmon | - | 1 | 22.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 38 | 1.8 | 26.8 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 0 | 1.17 | 31.2 | 31.2 |
| Jayden Maten | - | 21 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | - | - | - | 38.0 | 32.7 | 100.0 | - | 52.1 | 49.4 |
| Jared Townsley | - | 1 | 19.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 26 | 1.2 | 20.8 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.48 | 34.0 | 20.0 |
| Giovanni St. Onge | - | 7 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | - | - | - | 42.1 | 33.3 | 100.0 | - | 55.3 | 52.6 |
| Brody Bauer | - | 3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | -15 | -2.5 | -89.1 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | -1.39 | 68.0 | 60.0 |
| Brewer Eiklenborg | - | 8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3.1 | -2 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 75.0 | 100.0 | 78.6 | -0.56 | 88.6 | 87.5 |
| Vuk Stanic | - | 10 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | - | - | - | 31.8 | 16.7 | 50.0 | - | 39.2 | 36.4 |
| Kason Simpson | - | 1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -10 | -0.5 | -14.4 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.5 | 113.6 | 0 |
| Evan Gray | - | 6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -16 | -4.0 | -241.5 | 40.0 | 33.3 | 75.0 | -0.49 | 59.2 | 50.0 |
| Dominic Braet | - | 6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | -12 | -4.0 | -71.3 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 60.0 | -1.39 | 38.0 | 28.6 |
| Noah Franck | - | 2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Drew Britson | - | 9 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -30 | -5.0 | -95.7 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 62.5 | -0.68 | 33.3 | 20.0 |
| Patrick Murtagh | - | 3 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | -11 | -11.0 | -65.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 33.3 | -1.39 | 34.7 | 33.3 |
| Clay Nielsen | - | 7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -15 | -3.8 | -89.1 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | -1.39 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Owen Alleman | - | 1 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 21 | 1.2 | 30.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.01 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Reece Carson | - | 1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13 | 0.7 | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.58 | 0 | 0 |
| Payson Gillespie | - | 1 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 26 | 1.7 | 42.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash McCullough | - | 1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -8 | -0.6 | -44.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.96 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Rothmeyer | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Lyle Olsen | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -22 | -1.5 | -11.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.85 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Hempen | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -20 | -10.0 | -10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG