🐻⬇️🏀

Warren Wilson

Season:
Also known as: Warren Wilson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 868 (#442) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 692 (#579) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 988 (#491) HCA +62 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 841 (#656) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -22.3 (#366) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -18.0 (#587) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -19.8 (#602) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.010 (#708) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -22.8 More → 0.031 (#535) NetEff -22.8
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -48.5 More → 0.003 (#696) AdjNet -48.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -49.2 More → 0.003 (#694) AdjNet -49.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 51.9 | AdjD 84.4 More → 0.049 (#704) AdjO 51.9 | AdjD 84.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 63.6 More → 0.442 (#493) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 63.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.3 | AdjD 76.0 More → 0.166 (#677) AdjO 58.3 | AdjD 76.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.272 (#547) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.127 (#646) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.270 (#554) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.130 (#649) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 2 More → 1000 (#304) RD 350 | GP 2
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 138 | GP 21 More → 726 (#526) RD 138 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.