🐻⬇️🏀

Warren Wilson Owls

Also known as: Warren Wilson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 896 (#538) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 845 (#554) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 900 (#676) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -21.6 (#376) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -26.8 (#736) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.039 (#769) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -36.8 More → 0.014 (#764) AdjNet -36.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -36.9 More → 0.013 (#764) AdjNet -36.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.2 | AdjD 97.3 More → 0.061 (#774) AdjO 67.2 | AdjD 97.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 85.6 More → 0.186 (#747) AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 85.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.113 (#740) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.124 (#733) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 134 | GP 17 More → 815 (#551) RD 134 | GP 17

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-11 vs Methodist L 60 - 77
2025-11-14 vs Brevard W 85 - 73
2025-11-16 @ Greensboro W 86 - 78
2025-11-18 vs Piedmont L 68 - 85
2025-11-21 @ Mid-Atlantic Christ. L 66 - 89
2025-11-22 @ Berea L 62 - 79
2025-11-24 @ Brevard L 84 - 86
2025-12-02 vs Southern Va. L 73 - 95
2025-12-04 @ Charleston So. L 63 - 124
2025-12-06 @ Methodist W 77 - 72
2025-12-07 @ William Peace L 61 - 78
2025-12-10 @ Averett L 69 - 96
2026-01-06 @ Piedmont L 96 - 120
2026-01-10 vs Pensacola Christian W 85 - 67
2026-01-16 vs Virginia-Lynchburg W 82 - 76
2026-01-23 @ Covenant L 69 - 96
2026-02-04 vs JWU Charlotte L 73 - 92
2026-02-08 vs Regent L 0 - 0

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tajh Williams - 17 31.8 16.6 5.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 2.5 13.4 7.9 92 4.2 47.5 45.8 35.1 67.6 1.34 54.6 51.5
Jordan Moore - 11 28.0 12.9 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.0 1.8 11.2 6.5 - - - 39.8 22.7 84.8 - 49.6 41.9
Daniel Smith - 14 21.4 9.5 3.4 2.6 1.3 0.3 2.4 8.3 6.4 -37 -1.8 -9.3 42.2 21.7 68.2 3.19 49.1 44.4
Isaac Allen - 16 21.0 8.1 3.0 1.2 1.9 0.1 1.3 6.1 6.8 - - - 45.9 35.9 54.3 - 54.6 53.1
Braxton Crocker - 16 22.0 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 5.5 3.6 - - - 40.9 32.8 78.9 - 56.0 52.8
Archie Evans - 17 21.3 6.5 4.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 5.4 5.8 - - - 52.2 38.9 53.8 - 56.3 56.0
Asheton Glass - 14 15.9 6.4 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 6.1 3.3 - - - 38.8 15.8 91.3 - 47.3 40.6
Khanye Bland - 9 12.4 5.8 2.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.4 6.3 2.4 - - - 36.8 27.8 83.3 - 43.6 41.2
Alec Hilliard - 10 16.2 4.7 2.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.1 4.0 3.9 - - - 40.0 31.6 81.8 - 52.4 47.5
José Maria Palacios - 11 16.6 4.3 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.0 1.7 3.9 2.5 - - - 32.6 31.2 81.8 - 49.1 44.2
Nasir Cotton - 17 19.9 4.2 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.8 3.6 5.2 - - - 49.2 15.4 66.7 - 53.3 50.8
Tashaun Simpson - 12 11.8 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.8 - - - 48.5 22.2 70.0 - 54.8 51.5
Izayah Thomas - 2 7.8 2.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.5 30 2.3 56.7 25.0 50.0 50.0 0.23 41.0 37.5
Domas Undzenas - 1 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Marcus Andrews - 1 1.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG