Warren Wilson Owls
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 896 (#538) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 845 (#554) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 900 (#676) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -21.6 (#376) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -26.8 (#736) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.039 (#769) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.014 (#764) | AdjNet -36.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.013 (#764) | AdjNet -36.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.061 (#774) | AdjO 67.2 | AdjD 97.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.186 (#747) | AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 85.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.113 (#740) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.124 (#733) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 815 (#551) | RD 134 | GP 17 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Methodist | L | 60 - 77 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Brevard | W | 85 - 73 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Greensboro | W | 86 - 78 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Piedmont | L | 68 - 85 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Mid-Atlantic Christ. | L | 66 - 89 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Berea | L | 62 - 79 |
| 2025-11-24 | @ | Brevard | L | 84 - 86 |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | Southern Va. | L | 73 - 95 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Charleston So. | L | 63 - 124 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Methodist | W | 77 - 72 |
| 2025-12-07 | @ | William Peace | L | 61 - 78 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Averett | L | 69 - 96 |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Piedmont | L | 96 - 120 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Pensacola Christian | W | 85 - 67 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Virginia-Lynchburg | W | 82 - 76 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Covenant | L | 69 - 96 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | JWU Charlotte | L | 73 - 92 |
| 2026-02-08 | vs | Regent | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajh Williams | - | 17 | 31.8 | 16.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 92 | 4.2 | 47.5 | 45.8 | 35.1 | 67.6 | 1.34 | 54.6 | 51.5 |
| Jordan Moore | - | 11 | 28.0 | 12.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 11.2 | 6.5 | - | - | - | 39.8 | 22.7 | 84.8 | - | 49.6 | 41.9 |
| Daniel Smith | - | 14 | 21.4 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | -37 | -1.8 | -9.3 | 42.2 | 21.7 | 68.2 | 3.19 | 49.1 | 44.4 |
| Isaac Allen | - | 16 | 21.0 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | - | - | - | 45.9 | 35.9 | 54.3 | - | 54.6 | 53.1 |
| Braxton Crocker | - | 16 | 22.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | - | - | - | 40.9 | 32.8 | 78.9 | - | 56.0 | 52.8 |
| Archie Evans | - | 17 | 21.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | - | - | - | 52.2 | 38.9 | 53.8 | - | 56.3 | 56.0 |
| Asheton Glass | - | 14 | 15.9 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 3.3 | - | - | - | 38.8 | 15.8 | 91.3 | - | 47.3 | 40.6 |
| Khanye Bland | - | 9 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | - | - | - | 36.8 | 27.8 | 83.3 | - | 43.6 | 41.2 |
| Alec Hilliard | - | 10 | 16.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 31.6 | 81.8 | - | 52.4 | 47.5 |
| José Maria Palacios | - | 11 | 16.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 2.5 | - | - | - | 32.6 | 31.2 | 81.8 | - | 49.1 | 44.2 |
| Nasir Cotton | - | 17 | 19.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 5.2 | - | - | - | 49.2 | 15.4 | 66.7 | - | 53.3 | 50.8 |
| Tashaun Simpson | - | 12 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | - | - | - | 48.5 | 22.2 | 70.0 | - | 54.8 | 51.5 |
| Izayah Thomas | - | 2 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 30 | 2.3 | 56.7 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0.23 | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| Domas Undzenas | - | 1 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Marcus Andrews | - | 1 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG