Warren Wilson Owls
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 805 (#600) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 816 (#568) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 900 (#676) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -24.0 (#487) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -26.8 (#736) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.039 (#769) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.014 (#764) | AdjNet -36.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.013 (#764) | AdjNet -36.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.061 (#774) | AdjO 67.2 | AdjD 97.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.186 (#747) | AdjO 69.4 | AdjD 85.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.113 (#740) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.124 (#733) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 810 (#544) | RD 135 | GP 17 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Methodist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Brevard | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Greensboro | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | Piedmont | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Mid-Atlantic Christ. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Berea | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-24 | @ | Brevard | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-02 | vs | Southern Va. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Charleston So. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Methodist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-07 | @ | William Peace | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Averett | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Piedmont | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Pensacola Christian | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Virginia-Lynchburg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Covenant | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | JWU Charlotte | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-08 | vs | Regent | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajh Williams | - | 16 | 32.5 | 17.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 92 | 4.2 | 47.5 | 47.4 | 36.8 | 68.1 | -2.0 | 56.3 | 53.3 |
| Jordan Moore | - | 10 | 29.2 | 13.5 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | - | - | - | 41.8 | 22.2 | 84.8 | 2.04 | 51.8 | 43.6 |
| Daniel Smith | - | 13 | 21.4 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 8.2 | 6.7 | -37 | -1.8 | -9.3 | 43.0 | 21.7 | 65.0 | -2.66 | 49.4 | 45.3 |
| Isaac Allen | - | 15 | 20.7 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | - | - | - | 42.4 | 32.4 | 54.3 | 5.12 | 51.2 | 48.9 |
| Braxton Crocker | - | 15 | 22.2 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 40.7 | 32.8 | 78.9 | -2.15 | 56.2 | 52.9 |
| Asheton Glass | - | 13 | 15.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 3.8 | - | - | - | 41.0 | 17.6 | 91.3 | -1.67 | 49.9 | 42.9 |
| Khanye Bland | - | 8 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 38.9 | 31.2 | 83.3 | -0.29 | 45.9 | 43.5 |
| Archie Evans | - | 16 | 21.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 5.4 | 5.9 | - | - | - | 51.7 | 43.8 | 53.8 | -1.57 | 56.1 | 55.7 |
| Alec Hilliard | - | 9 | 16.4 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 4.9 | - | - | - | 46.9 | 42.9 | 81.8 | 0.21 | 61.1 | 56.2 |
| José Maria Palacios | - | 10 | 17.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 | - | - | - | 32.5 | 33.3 | 81.8 | 0.38 | 50.2 | 45.0 |
| Nasir Cotton | - | 16 | 20.0 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 5.4 | - | - | - | 50.9 | 20.0 | 66.7 | 1.96 | 55.2 | 52.7 |
| Tashaun Simpson | - | 11 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | - | - | - | 48.3 | 14.3 | 75.0 | -1.7 | 53.8 | 50.0 |
| Izayah Thomas | - | 2 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 30 | 2.3 | 56.7 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 1.46 | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| Domas Undzenas | - | 1 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG