Warner Pacific
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1031 (#248) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1068 (#208) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1006 (#403) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -5.3 (#196) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -5.7 (#452) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.547 (#435) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.324 (#440) | AdjNet -6.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.317 (#440) | AdjNet -6.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.387 (#445) | AdjO 71.4 | AdjD 76.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.490 (#428) | AdjO 73.6 | AdjD 74.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.434 (#451) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.447 (#445) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1074 (#242) | RD 291 | GP 4 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Willamette | W | 103 - 100 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Lewis & Clark | W | 73 - 72 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Linfield | W | 73 - 71 |
| 2025-12-12 | @ | Pacific Lutheran | L | 61 - 64 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Overby | - | 1 | 33.0 | 29.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 16.0 | 24.0 | 64 | 4.0 | 10.9 | 56.2 | 100.0 | 90.9 | 3.94 | 69.6 | 59.4 |
| Kellen Sande | - | 1 | 33.0 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 29 | 1.6 | 6.4 | 46.2 | 30.0 | 75.0 | -0.8 | 61.0 | 57.7 |
| Charlie Kapranos | - | 1 | 30.2 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 75.0 | -1.33 | 79.0 | 77.8 |
| Caleb Berry | - | 1 | 20.1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | -131 | -6.5 | -25.6 | 42.9 | 42.9 | 87.5 | -2.49 | 76.0 | 64.3 |
| Jurrien Sparks | - | 2 | 32.5 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 13.0 | 11.5 | - | - | - | 46.2 | 42.9 | 60.0 | - | 53.2 | 51.9 |
| Anujan Tennathur | - | 1 | 29.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 18 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -1.21 | 44.8 | 38.5 |
| Sean Johnson | - | 2 | 22.1 | 13.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -14 | -1.3 | -58.2 | 61.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | -0.93 | 71.5 | 69.4 |
| Terrin Dickey | - | 2 | 25.6 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 7.5 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 25.0 | 64.7 | - | 53.4 | 43.3 |
| Davis Hester | - | 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 72 | 4.0 | 13.9 | 57.1 | 57.1 | 0 | 1.32 | 85.7 | 85.7 |
| Dra Uperesa-Thomas | - | 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 79 | 4.9 | 30.7 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0.81 | 55.1 | 60.0 |
| Henry Smith | - | 1 | 25.5 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 63 | 3.1 | 11.0 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 66.7 | 2.03 | 59.0 | 56.2 |
| Tyler Stringfellow | - | 1 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 31 | 1.7 | 13.6 | 40.0 | 25.0 | 66.7 | 3.02 | 55.4 | 50.0 |
| Isiah Salim | - | 2 | 34.4 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 | - | - | - | 26.7 | 28.6 | 75.0 | - | 38.8 | 33.3 |
| Vincent Warren | - | 2 | 24.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 7.5 | - | - | - | 44.4 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 60.7 | 55.6 |
| Ben Tellez | - | 1 | 30.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 | -47 | -2.4 | -7.8 | 22.2 | 20.0 | 50.0 | -0.81 | 30.4 | 27.8 |
| Nico Perez-La Costa | - | 2 | 17.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 44.4 | 40.0 | 0 | - | 55.6 | 55.6 |
| Nico Costa | - | 2 | 17.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | - | - | - | 44.4 | 40.0 | 0 | - | 55.6 | 55.6 |
| Dom Perasso | - | 1 | 27.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | -1.0 | -77 | -3.9 | -14.9 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 1.38 | 21.0 | 18.2 |
| Cam Rice | - | 1 | 16.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | -29 | -1.5 | -10.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -0.31 | 125.0 | 125.0 |
| Mack Hepper | - | 1 | 24.1 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | -50 | -2.9 | -21.7 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.61 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Connor Clem | - | 1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -6 | -0.6 | -137.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.21 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Darryl Brooks | - | 2 | 16.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | -26 | -2.4 | -12.8 | 42.9 | 33.3 | 0 | 1.03 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Aadem Isai | - | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 29 | 1.7 | 16.3 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.65 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Pearson Wiggins | - | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 88 | 5.2 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.75 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Julian Brown | - | 1 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.52 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Burton | - | 1 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 12 | 0.7 | 7.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamie McGrail | - | 1 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -5 | -0.6 | -19.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Sibley | - | 1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -4.0 | 69 | 5.8 | 298.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.54 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Nick Harden | - | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27 | 3.0 | 335.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.51 | 0 | 0 |
| Balazs Nyikos | - | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -9 | -4.5 | -33.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.93 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Deacon Perry | - | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 71 | 3.9 | 19.9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.67 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| AJ Wolfe | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 40 | 2.5 | 39.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.61 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG