Virgin Islands - 2026

Model Outputs

2025-2026

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More →	974 (#257)	-
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More →	981 (#266)	-
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More →	989 (#346)	HCA +95 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More →	+10.8 (#148)	HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.258 (#455)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.0 More →	0.501 (#417)	AdjNet +0.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -0.2 More →	0.494 (#419)	AdjNet -0.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.7 \| AdjD 73.7 More →	0.500 (#422)	AdjO 73.7 \| AdjD 73.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.4 \| AdjD 71.9 More →	0.555 (#209)	AdjO 74.4 \| AdjD 71.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.621 (#216)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.605 (#226)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 319 \| GP 1 More →	950 (#278)	RD 319 \| GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2025-12-11	@	Virginia Union	L	56 - 60

2026 Roster

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Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Numbers	PM	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Joshua Caine	-	1	14.0	15.0	10.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	10.0	17.0	42	2.8	55.3	60.0	0	75.0	1.01	63.8	60.0
Noah Richardson-Keyes	-	1	29.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	9.0	5.0	160	10.0	61.4	55.6	0	33.3	1.72	53.3	55.6
Malachi Dark	-	1	20.0	6.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.0	2.0	83	4.9	52.3	33.3	0	100.0	-0.7	43.6	33.3
Nehemiah Johnson	-	1	10.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	4.0	3.0	94	5.5	42.2	25.0	0	100.0	2.26	41.0	25.0
Paul Mason	-	1	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	18	2.0	101.4	100.0	0	0	0.14	100.0	100.0
Farell Crowell	-	1	3.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	8	0.7	16.1	0.0	0	100.0	0.01	53.2	0.0
Tyler Bell	-	1	11.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	34	2.1	39.2	50.0	0	0	-0.7	50.0	50.0
William Tchatchoua	-	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	1.0	28.7	0	0	0	-0.22	0	0
Jaylen Jones	-	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	-2.0	24	1.1	5.3	0.0	0	0	0.56	0.0	0.0
Tahj Harding	-	1	17.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	-3.0	101	6.7	48.1	0.0	0.0	0	1.4	0.0	0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG