Vanguard
Also known as: Vanguard
Program History
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1137 (#67) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1224 (#32) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1112 (#64) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +22.1 (#14) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +13.0 (#170) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.904 (#183) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.975 (#90) | NetEff +27.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.928 (#178) | AdjNet +22.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.933 (#185) | AdjNet +22.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.782 (#189) | AdjO 69.0 | AdjD 55.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.775 (#40) | AdjO 70.9 | AdjD 57.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.841 (#66) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.836 (#58) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1167 (#62) | RD 106 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Mont. St. Billings | W | 65 - 54 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Simon Fraser | W | 76 - 41 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Central Wash. | L | 58 - 66 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Northwest Nazarene | W | 87 - 56 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | LIFE Pacific | W | 88 - 36 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Menlo | W | 83 - 60 |
| 2025-12-15 | vs | Chaminade | W | 79 - 49 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Fresno Pacific | W | 72 - 44 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Biola | W | 60 - 52 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Chaminade | W | 83 - 47 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | Hawaii Pacific | W | 72 - 61 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Hawaii Hilo | W | 60 - 44 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Azusa Pacific | L | 73 - 74 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Point Loma | L | 57 - 59 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Dominican (CA) | W | 82 - 66 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Hawaii Pacific | W | 79 - 37 |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | Hawaii Hilo | W | 99 - 49 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Westmont | W | 73 - 70 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Schaaf | - | 18 | 27.9 | 14.2 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 158 | 10.5 | 101.3 | 46.0 | 34.3 | 78.1 | 0.54 | 56.6 | 52.0 |
| Kaylee Byon | - | 18 | 29.4 | 12.8 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 45.7 | 30.3 | 84.4 | -0.01 | 52.6 | 48.2 |
| Micaela Hanning | - | 18 | 30.0 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 182 | 12.1 | 89.3 | 45.0 | 40.3 | 71.0 | 2.19 | 55.0 | 53.1 |
| Halle Si'i | - | 13 | 20.1 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.7 | 39.2 | 26.5 | 68.8 | -1.23 | 50.0 | 44.9 |
| Jaryn Madsen | - | 18 | 21.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | -15 | -1.1 | -9.6 | 33.1 | 26.3 | 70.0 | -1.66 | 44.4 | 43.1 |
| Aryanna Hudson | - | 18 | 20.9 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 67 | 4.5 | 33.6 | 41.2 | 44.2 | 80.0 | 3.87 | 54.7 | 53.1 |
| Kayla Boozer | - | 17 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.5 | 6.8 | -5 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 50.6 | 0 | 64.7 | -1.09 | 54.4 | 50.6 |
| Shayla O'Neil | - | 18 | 15.9 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 43.5 | 29.4 | 73.9 | 0.03 | 53.1 | 49.4 |
| Akilah Kubi | - | 14 | 16.9 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 6.6 | -37 | -4.1 | -22.1 | 53.8 | 0 | 53.3 | 1.45 | 54.8 | 53.8 |
| Ashlin Crabtree | - | 6 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 25 | 4.2 | 53.2 | 42.9 | 42.9 | 50.0 | -1.55 | 63.8 | 64.3 |
| Gloria Barrera | - | 3 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 37.5 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 41.5 | 37.5 |
| Nyla Cabine | - | 15 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -1 | -0.1 | -3.0 | 37.5 | 20.0 | 83.3 | -2.6 | 46.9 | 41.7 |
| Natalie Scherzer | - | 17 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | -22 | -1.6 | -35.8 | 26.8 | 20.0 | 50.0 | -2.17 | 32.2 | 31.7 |
| Braelynn Yakubik | - | 1 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Ella Murakami | - | 1 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG