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Valley Forge

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Valley Forge
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 817 (#606) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 765 (#613) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 852 (#721) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -26.3 (#400) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -26.7 (#735) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.221 (#652) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -32.5 More → 0.023 (#745) AdjNet -32.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -33.0 More → 0.021 (#745) AdjNet -33.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 87.5 More → 0.100 (#742) AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 87.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 82.1 More → 0.181 (#751) AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 82.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.118 (#733) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.122 (#738) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 23 More → 757 (#590) RD 100 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-06 @ Lehigh L 52 - 91
2025-11-08 @ Haverford L 79 - 111
2025-11-11 @ Medgar Evers W 90 - 68
2025-11-14 @ Patrick Henry W 65 - 56
2025-11-15 @ Christendom L 53 - 60
2025-11-17 @ Washington Col. L 67 - 68
2025-11-18 vs Manor L 89 - 99
2025-11-20 vs Central Penn W 86 - 76
2025-11-22 vs Gwynedd Mercy L 85 - 93
2025-12-03 @ Penn St.-Berks L 60 - 62
2025-12-06 vs Notre Dame (MD) L 82 - 83
2026-01-03 vs Keystone L 76 - 84
2026-01-07 @ Penn St.-Abington W 82 - 81
2026-01-10 @ Penn St.-Scranton L 76 - 79
2026-01-13 vs Penn St. Brandywine L 51 - 78
2026-01-17 @ Cairn L 57 - 87
2026-01-21 @ Penn St. Harrisburg L 66 - 87
2026-01-24 vs Lancaster Bible L 67 - 104
2026-01-27 vs Rosemont L 61 - 63
2026-01-29 vs Penn St.-Lehigh Val. W 61 - 58
2026-01-31 @ Gallaudet W 80 - 66
2026-02-04 @ Penn College W 89 - 77
2026-02-07 vs St. Mary's (MD) L 68 - 80

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ronald Ayers - 1 26.4 24.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 16.0 207 11.5 69.3 50.0 25.0 91.7 3.38 69.4 54.2
Jaylon Simpson - 1 26.4 24.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 16.0 201 8.7 66.7 50.0 25.0 91.7 1.39 69.4 54.2
JoJo Kelly - 1 45.0 20.0 12.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 17.0 18.0 -73 -4.1 -13.3 35.3 25.0 75.0 0.91 48.7 41.2
Bobby Vander Woude - 1 36.0 20.0 8.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 14.0 15.0 - - - 28.6 28.6 83.3 - 51.9 35.7
Alex Ortman - 1 33.0 20.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 17.0 -83 -6.4 -37.6 53.3 0 50.0 -2.03 54.0 53.3
Tyler Meinel - 1 41.4 19.0 8.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 13.0 18.0 -82 -4.6 -16.3 61.5 0 50.0 -2.26 60.7 61.5
Tyler Fox - 1 41.8 18.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 19.0 0.0 - - - 36.8 30.8 0 - 47.4 47.4
Michael Vander Woude - 1 40.0 18.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 13.0 - - - 50.0 37.5 83.3 - 71.2 65.0
Justin Leddo - 1 15.0 17.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 10.0 -39 -2.3 -43.4 72.7 33.3 0 -1.76 77.3 77.3
Jon Nalty - 1 27.9 16.0 7.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 18.0 -60 -2.9 -14.8 44.4 40.0 100.0 -0.5 68.7 55.6
Brandon Moore - 1 32.6 15.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 15.0 -29 -1.8 -14.5 75.0 100.0 50.0 0.44 84.5 87.5
Isaiah Reece - 13 25.9 14.1 4.8 1.2 1.2 0.5 2.2 10.8 8.7 76 4.5 40.7 47.9 33.3 70.6 0.05 53.8 48.2
K'Mari Smith - 1 45.0 13.0 6.0 7.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 19.0 -53 -2.9 -9.2 50.0 0.0 50.0 1.2 53.5 50.0
Elija Eccleston - 1 24.0 13.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 -8 -0.5 -6.9 50.0 20.0 50.0 -3.18 55.3 55.0
Wyatt Carlson - 1 21.0 13.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 8.0 14.0 -2 -0.2 -1.7 62.5 0.0 100.0 -1.29 69.7 62.5
Ty Woodland - 1 22.6 12.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 10.0 -144 -7.2 -39.0 71.4 100.0 50.0 -0.02 76.1 78.6
Ty Jones - 1 36.6 12.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 16.0 -105 -4.0 -103.3 66.7 50.0 100.0 -0.32 87.2 83.3
Chris Taylor - 1 35.1 12.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 12.0 5.0 -120 -7.5 -45.7 33.3 60.0 50.0 -2.69 46.6 45.8
Nolan Waldon - 1 28.0 11.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 6.0 -83 -3.8 -28.2 27.3 0.0 55.6 -5.01 36.8 27.3
Joe Curran - 1 38.0 10.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 1.0 - - - 36.4 40.0 0.0 - 43.7 45.5
Tyler Jackson - 1 25.5 10.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 7.0 -173 -5.2 -148.5 44.4 40.0 0.0 -4.95 53.0 55.6
Jory Valencia - 1 38.0 10.0 4.0 7.0 3.0 2.0 9.0 7.0 10.0 -71 -6.5 -26.8 42.9 25.0 50.0 -0.26 51.9 50.0
Denzel Pierre - 16 21.8 9.4 2.8 1.3 1.2 0.2 1.8 8.6 4.6 -19 -1.1 -9.8 35.5 34.6 86.2 -1.86 50.1 45.7
Zaki Gomez - 1 39.5 9.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 12.0 -1.0 -69 -4.1 -25.2 33.3 0.0 50.0 -0.82 34.9 33.3
William Lawder - 16 24.6 8.5 7.7 1.1 1.7 0.6 1.1 6.8 11.7 -3 -0.2 -1.2 51.9 0 39.3 0.61 50.4 51.9
Michael Broady - 13 17.8 8.2 1.9 0.7 1.0 0.2 1.2 7.7 3.1 -68 -5.2 -210.0 39.0 36.1 43.8 0.58 50.0 50.0
Edmund Thomas - 1 40.0 8.0 14.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 8.0 14.0 -47 -1.7 -100.4 37.5 50.0 50.0 0.1 45.0 43.8
Jae Harris - 1 18.8 8.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 2.0 -43 -5.4 -12.5 42.9 0 66.7 -2.58 48.1 42.9
Ryan Lang - 1 27.6 8.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 -120 -6.0 -34.2 60.0 33.3 50.0 -3.7 68.0 70.0
Dominik McKenney-George - 12 21.8 7.6 1.5 2.5 1.1 0.1 2.2 7.8 2.8 -56 -4.0 -36.8 36.6 31.6 73.3 1.37 45.7 43.0
Nabhi Abbushi Jr. - 1 36.0 7.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 10.0 6.0 -69 -23.0 -247.5 20.0 16.7 100.0 0.07 32.2 25.0
Max Portnoy - 1 28.9 6.0 7.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 6.0 -3 -0.1 -0.7 27.3 0 0 0.51 27.3 27.3
Jayson Fain - 1 4.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 26 2.6 266.7 66.7 100.0 0 1.38 100.0 100.0
Jordan Spencer - 1 27.0 6.0 7.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 7.0 127 7.1 48.0 66.7 0 100.0 3.89 77.3 66.7
Mike Gaines - 11 15.4 5.5 3.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 4.8 5.1 119 10.8 723.0 43.4 34.6 60.0 0.67 53.1 51.9
Christian Metivia - 16 18.5 4.1 2.6 1.3 1.3 0.0 1.2 3.4 4.7 - - - 38.9 21.4 62.5 - 47.7 41.7
Mike Byfield - 1 22.2 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 4.0 -82 -4.3 -19.6 33.3 0 0 -1.38 33.3 33.3
Tamir Powell - 1 26.8 4.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 8.0 3.0 -71 -4.4 -32.0 25.0 0.0 0 0.62 25.0 25.0
Byron Gaskins - 1 11.9 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 3.0 9 0.4 4.5 33.3 0.0 0 2.18 33.3 33.3
Antwone George - 1 16.0 4.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 13.0 11 0.6 5.5 33.3 0.0 0 2.64 33.3 33.3
Deven Dowdie - 16 16.6 3.8 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 1.6 3.9 4.2 15 0.8 9.6 33.9 30.8 71.4 0.45 44.0 40.3
Jason Brice - 16 7.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 3.1 1.0 -47 -2.8 -44.4 26.0 34.6 77.8 -2.52 42.3 35.0
Sean Murphy - 1 2.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 144 4.8 61.9 50.0 100.0 0 1.77 75.0 75.0
Davis Bland - 1 18.2 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 -1.0 -43 -2.0 -15.0 16.7 16.7 0 -1.87 25.0 25.0
Corey Baldwin - 1 2.3 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 183 9.2 137.3 100.0 100.0 0 2.43 150.0 150.0
Donne Midamba - 1 2.3 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 - - - 100.0 100.0 0 - 150.0 150.0
Chris Henderson - 1 16.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 6.0 104 5.8 39.6 25.0 0.0 100.0 0.52 33.8 25.0
David Reed IV - 1 13.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 -29 -1.6 -21.3 25.0 0 25.0 -1.38 26.0 25.0
Tyler Scarpulla - 1 18.1 3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -1.0 -146 -8.6 -59.3 25.0 0 50.0 -4.06 30.7 25.0
Aiden Littleton - 13 7.9 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 3.2 0.1 -58 -5.8 -39.5 39.0 0.0 40.0 -1.11 39.4 39.0
Caleb Alston-Nelson - 1 4.6 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 - - - 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Luke Ross - 1 26.0 2.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 - - - 0.0 0 50.0 - 17.4 0.0
Ben Costello - 1 15.2 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 -1.0 -101 -5.0 -43.8 25.0 0.0 0 -0.56 25.0 25.0
Chris Hill - 1 11.2 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 142 10.1 218.3 0.0 0 100.0 -0.69 25.8 0.0
Jonathan Desir - 1 11.2 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 127 7.9 192.7 0.0 0 100.0 2.08 25.8 0.0
Liam Carey - 1 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 -4 -0.5 -14.5 100.0 0 0 -0.76 100.0 100.0
Maurice Davis - 1 16.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 42 2.1 25.6 33.3 0 0 2.57 33.3 33.3
Dallas Wilder - 1 9.1 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 -69 -4.9 -47.8 50.0 0 0 -2.22 50.0 50.0
Camar Gregorio - 8 6.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.6 -9 -1.0 -74.7 44.4 0.0 40.0 0.39 44.6 44.4
Ace Branham - 13 4.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.8 -0.6 -68 -6.2 -189.8 21.7 0.0 75.0 -2.57 26.3 21.7
Jaden Cesar - 15 5.9 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.3 -47 -3.4 -87.9 42.9 25.0 50.0 -1.99 47.6 46.4
Brandon Edwards - 6 4.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 -12 -1.7 -56.6 20.0 0.0 33.3 -0.94 26.2 20.0
Charlie Giordano - 9 3.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 -0.6 -24 -3.4 -144.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.99 0.0 0.0
Jacob Becker - 1 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 11 0.7 9.7 0 0 0 1.38 0 0
David Carr Jr. - 1 5.3 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 2.91 0.0 0.0
Andre Burrell Jr - 1 14.9 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Luke Cughan - 1 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 15 2.5 91.6 0 0 0 0.11 0 0
Jaylyn Mason - 1 3.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 -24 -1.8 -58.2 0 0 0 -2.01 0 0
Kyle Jones - 2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18 1.4 25.9 0 0 0 -0.39 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG