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Virginia-Lynchburg Dragons

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2015 2013
Also known as: VU of Lynchburg Dragons
Program History

Model Outputs

2021-2022
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 604 (#761) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 646 (#763) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +115 elo More → 999 (#193) HCA +115 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -40.4 (#980) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More → -8.0 (#449) HCA +2.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 69.1 More → 0.480 (#320) AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 69.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.304 (#464) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.334 (#458) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 908 (#444) RD 350 | GP 1

2022 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2021-11-12 @ Longwood Lancers L 46 - 80

2022 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
D. Williams D. Williams - 1 40.0 24.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 29.0 -43 -1.4 -2.9 0 0 0 1.71 0 0
A. Faulkner A. Faulkner - 1 29.0 12.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 11.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
M. Milling M. Milling - 1 34.0 6.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 4.0 - - - 0 0 0 -0.32 0 0
X. Jones X. Jones - 1 28.0 4.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 10.0 - - - 0 0 0 -0.2 0 0
M. Smith M. Smith - 1 28.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 -143 -4.8 -8.3 0 0 0 2.6 0 0
X. Gadsden X. Gadsden - 1 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Lewis J. Lewis - 1 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -193 -6.0 -9.1 0 0 0 1.89 0 0
J. Wright-Goode J. Wright-Goode - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Hene J. Hene - 1 24.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Kealey J. Kealey - 1 5.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG