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VTSU Castleton

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: VTSU Castleton
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 805 (#345) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 862 (#301) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 902 (#674) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -16.9 (#335) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -17.3 (#644) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.206 (#347) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.7 More → 0.068 (#349) AdjNet -22.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -22.9 More → 0.065 (#347) AdjNet -22.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 82.8 More → 0.180 (#346) AdjO 66.2 | AdjD 82.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 75.5 More → 0.261 (#703) AdjO 64.0 | AdjD 75.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.194 (#663) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.201 (#673) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 109 | GP 20 More → 866 (#503) RD 109 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Rensselaer L 60 - 72
2025-11-11 @ Fitchburg St. L 79 - 81
2025-11-14 vs Me.-Farmington L 61 - 83
2025-11-15 vs St. John Fisher W 69 - 61
2025-11-19 @ Russell Sage L 64 - 75
2025-11-25 @ Colby-Sawyer W 86 - 81
2025-12-03 vs Keene St. L 65 - 87
2025-12-06 @ UMass Dartmouth L 55 - 78
2025-12-09 vs SUNY Cobleskill W 67 - 66
2025-12-13 @ Rhode Island Col. L 54 - 78
2025-12-30 vs Curry W 82 - 68
2026-01-02 vs SUNY Canton W 96 - 91
2026-01-08 vs Plymouth St. L 75 - 83
2026-01-10 vs Southern Me. L 74 - 78
2026-01-14 @ Eastern Conn. St. L 42 - 77
2026-01-17 @ WestConn L 65 - 103
2026-01-21 @ UMass Boston L 65 - 88
2026-01-24 vs UMass Dartmouth - Incomplete score
2026-01-27 @ Keene St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Rhode Island Col. - Incomplete score
2026-02-09 vs WestConn L 63 - 85
2026-02-11 vs UMass Boston L 85 - 100
2026-02-14 vs Eastern Conn. St. L 62 - 78
2026-02-18 @ Plymouth St. L 51 - 64
2026-02-21 @ Southern Me. L 70 - 90

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Will Radcliff - 24 30.7 19.8 9.0 2.5 1.3 0.4 3.2 14.0 15.9 - - - - 54.3 34.4 67.2 - 60.3 57.6
Ben Seiler - 24 25.0 11.5 2.5 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.7 10.5 3.1 - - - - 36.7 32.6 81.5 - 50.0 46.0
Elijah Maldonado - 23 24.6 6.7 1.8 2.8 1.7 0.0 2.2 6.1 4.7 - - - - 39.0 27.1 75.0 - 48.2 43.6
Joe Buxton - 23 19.0 6.5 3.6 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.6 6.4 4.0 - - - - 38.1 30.4 63.6 - 47.9 46.3
Zach Thompson - 24 18.0 5.5 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.0 1.5 4.2 4.6 - - - - 45.5 35.9 81.8 - 57.6 52.5
Adam Bilodeau - 21 20.1 4.8 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 1.8 4.0 4.6 - - - - 41.0 36.6 60.7 - 52.5 50.0
Jackson Doyle - 20 14.9 4.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.7 3.3 2.1 - - - - 42.4 37.5 66.7 - 59.3 58.3
Conner McKearin - 23 22.5 3.6 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.0 - - - - 27.7 14.0 51.9 - 33.1 30.4
Caleb Dsouza - 6 16.7 2.8 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.7 2.8 2.8 - - - - 35.3 25.0 100.0 - 47.5 44.1
Ethan Lussier - 19 16.6 2.5 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.6 2.8 2.7 - - - - 37.7 18.8 50.0 - 43.6 43.4
Seamus Demauro - 22 7.6 1.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.9 - - - - 46.9 0 60.0 - 49.5 46.9
Jake Oglesby - 16 6.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.1 - - - - 37.0 30.0 25.0 - 41.7 42.6
Jerrick Jacobs - 7 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.4 - - - - 25.0 0.0 100.0 - 33.8 25.0
Harry King - 8 6.5 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.2 - - - - 37.5 0 0 - 37.5 37.5
Dyvan Hevey - 3 1.8 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Cooper Losey - 5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 - - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Sam Moorman - 3 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.7 - - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Hayden Lutz - 7 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 - - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG