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Utah Valley

Also known as: Utah Valley Wolverines
Program History

Model Outputs

2011-2012
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 938 (#200) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 939 (#209) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +101 elo More โ†’ 1008 (#160) HCA +101 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -4.9 (#244) HCA +3.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -3.7 (#228) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.510 (#163) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -6.9 More โ†’ 0.310 (#235) AdjNet -6.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -7.0 More โ†’ 0.308 (#235) AdjNet -7.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 60.9 | AdjD 65.3 More โ†’ 0.403 (#242) AdjO 60.9 | AdjD 65.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.1 | AdjD 61.7 More โ†’ 0.486 (#179) AdjO 61.1 | AdjD 61.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.423 (#208) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.440 (#200) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 133 | GP 26 More โ†’ 964 (#191) RD 133 | GP 26

2012 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2011-11-11 vs Simpson University Red Hawks W 80 - 53
2011-11-14 @ Houston Cougars L 71 - 84
2011-11-16 vs Grambling Tigers W 64 - 34
2011-11-19 vs Kansas City Roos W 58 - 54
2011-11-22 @ Arkansas Razorbacks L 59 - 67
2011-11-25 @ Oakland Golden Grizzlies L 83 - 89
2011-11-28 vs Northern Illinois Huskies W 58 - 47
2011-11-30 @ Wyoming Cowboys L 41 - 74
2011-12-02 vs Haskell Jayhawks W 84 - 49
2011-12-06 @ Utah State Aggies L 54 - 63
2011-12-10 vs Portland State Vikings W 93 - 87
2011-12-17 vs Georgia State Panthers L 68 - 71
2011-12-19 @ Maine Black Bears L 60 - 77
2011-12-22 @ Montana Grizzlies L 52 - 65
2011-12-29 @ Hampton Pirates W 42 - 40
2011-12-30 @ Chattanooga Mocs L 59 - 74
2012-01-03 vs Wyoming Cowboys L 70 - 76
2012-01-07 vs Seattle U Redhawks W 77 - 72
2012-01-13 @ Seattle U Redhawks W 84 - 74
2012-01-16 vs Saint Mary Spires W 98 - 72
2012-01-26 vs Chicago State Cougars W 65 - 56
2012-01-28 vs NJIT Highlanders W 81 - 58
2012-02-04 @ Houston Christian Huskies W 68 - 66
2012-02-09 @ NJIT Highlanders W 99 - 97
2012-02-13 vs Montana Tech Orediggers W 70 - 60
2012-02-23 vs Houston Christian Huskies W 75 - 56
2012-02-25 vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros W 74 - 64
2012-03-03 @ North Dakota Fighting Hawks L 56 - 57
2012-03-09 vs NJIT Highlanders T 0 - 0
2012-03-13 @ Weber State Wildcats L 69 - 72

2012 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Isiah Williams Isiah Williams G 30 33.2 16.5 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 2.3 4.0 16.1 77 24 3.2 4.1 38.3 30.9 90.0 1.41 191.8 45.4
Ben Aird Ben Aird C 30 30.4 10.5 7.6 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.6 2.2 18.0 42 24 1.8 2.4 47.8 0.0 90.9 -2.22 193.8 47.8
Geddes Robinson Geddes Robinson F 30 30.9 10.1 10.5 1.7 1.0 0.3 1.9 1.5 20.2 67 24 2.8 3.8 59.1 0 46.4 0.8 269.9 59.1
Holton Hunsaker Holton Hunsaker G 30 30.9 10.0 2.6 3.3 1.6 0.0 2.3 2.4 12.8 59 24 2.5 3.4 32.9 39.0 88.2 -0.19 187.0 43.8
Keith Thompson Keith Thompson F 30 23.2 9.1 4.0 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 2.4 12.7 49 24 2.0 3.7 58.3 35.0 73.3 -1.3 174.3 63.2
Alfonzo Hubbard Alfonzo Hubbard F 28 18.5 6.5 4.3 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.8 10.2 39 23 1.7 3.9 56.0 40.0 55.6 -1.1 156.2 58.0
Keawe Enos Keawe Enos G 21 11.3 2.8 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 3.1 -20 16 -1.2 -4.9 23.5 15.4 85.7 -3.36 146.9 29.4
Kevin Woods Kevin Woods G 23 12.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 5.1 12 17 0.7 2.4 33.3 0.0 100.0 -0.23 273.3 33.3
Taylor Brown Taylor Brown G 27 8.9 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 2.6 -23 22 -1.0 -5.8 26.7 18.2 66.7 -2.73 138.9 33.3
Zach Jones Zach Jones F 21 6.0 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 2.5 -7 13 -0.5 -4.5 44.4 0 50.0 -3.14 161.9 44.4
Rory Fannon Rory Fannon C 26 6.5 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.9 13 21 0.6 4.2 100.0 0 0.0 -0.19 364.6 100.0
Will Sinclair Will Sinclair C 10 4.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.3 2 5 0.4 4.4 0.0 0 0 -1.17 250.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG