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Ursinus

Season:
Also known as: Ursinus
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1015 (#213) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1104 (#130) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1005 (#401) HCA +62 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 999 (#447) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +6.0 (#127) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +3.7 (#302) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -1.8 (#395) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.726 (#350) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +6.1 More → 0.704 (#275) NetEff +6.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +10.5 More → 0.770 (#284) AdjNet +10.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.8 More → 0.761 (#289) AdjNet +9.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.9 | AdjD 59.3 More → 0.605 (#299) AdjO 63.9 | AdjD 59.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 54.4 More → 0.645 (#184) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 54.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 57.9 More → 0.562 (#282) AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 57.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.624 (#277) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.522 (#365) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.613 (#284) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.482 (#401) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 22 More → 1084 (#202) RD 99 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.