Ursinus Bears
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1086 (#130) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1097 (#161) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1050 (#174) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +1.2 (#184) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.1 (#352) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.594 (#405) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.653 (#35) | NetEff +4.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.395 (#403) | AdjNet -3.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.386 (#401) | AdjNet -4.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.433 (#406) | AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 79.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.607 (#206) | AdjO 80.6 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.568 (#341) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.583 (#332) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1106 (#165) | RD 96 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Elmira | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Marietta | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-11 | @ | Albright | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Widener | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Goucher | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | FDU-Florham | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-08 | vs | Rosemont | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Scranton | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | York (PA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Hunter | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Moravian | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Elizabethtown | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Washington Col. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Haverford | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Gettysburg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Muhlenberg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | McDaniel | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Swarthmore | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Dickinson | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Franklin & Marshall | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Johns Hopkins | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Carr | - | 1 | 34.0 | 28.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 24 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 78.6 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0.92 | 91.4 | 89.3 |
| Nick Ruisi | - | 1 | 33.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 | 22.0 | 9 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 53.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | -0.1 | 62.6 | 56.7 |
| Mohamed Toure | - | 20 | 27.9 | 16.4 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 48 | 2.4 | 9.8 | 50.0 | 36.8 | 72.2 | 0.21 | 61.3 | 56.5 |
| Jamie Murphy | - | 19 | 29.4 | 16.0 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 62 | 3.1 | 12.1 | 53.1 | 18.2 | 74.0 | 1.33 | 59.1 | 54.0 |
| Nick Nocito | - | 20 | 29.1 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 74 | 3.7 | 16.4 | 46.2 | 17.0 | 67.0 | -0.46 | 54.2 | 48.8 |
| Will Marion | - | 1 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 51 | 2.7 | 10.7 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.96 | 85.0 | 80.0 |
| Luke Nieman | - | 19 | 24.1 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 77 | 3.9 | 20.9 | 42.4 | 40.4 | 52.9 | 1.13 | 58.4 | 58.3 |
| Matthew Field | - | 20 | 21.9 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 10.2 | 52 | 2.6 | 13.2 | 54.7 | 25.0 | 69.0 | 0.51 | 62.2 | 56.8 |
| Ben Robinson | - | 1 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | -13 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 50.0 | -1.25 | 50.9 | 50.0 |
| Tomas Belaiter | - | 19 | 21.5 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 15 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 50.0 | 27.8 | 60.5 | -2.01 | 55.4 | 52.8 |
| Porter Kelly | - | 19 | 17.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 5 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 38.2 | 30.6 | 70.4 | -0.52 | 50.9 | 47.5 |
| Jasper Buck | - | 18 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 62 | 3.4 | 41.8 | 36.8 | 35.3 | 0.0 | 3.81 | 52.3 | 52.6 |
| Jon Spatola | - | 1 | 37.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 23 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 12.5 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0.61 | 22.5 | 18.8 |
| Trevor Toulson | - | 20 | 15.7 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 33 | 1.6 | 13.9 | 64.6 | 0 | 32.1 | 1.78 | 58.9 | 64.6 |
| Lucas Murshrush | - | 8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 20 | 3.3 | 175.2 | 50.0 | 28.6 | 100.0 | - | 60.5 | 57.1 |
| Luca Baratta | - | 1 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -38 | -2.0 | -17.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -3.08 | 53.2 | 0.0 |
| Brycen Martin | - | 8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 22 | 3.1 | 138.6 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 83.3 | - | 30.7 | 16.7 |
| Graham Eilberg | - | 8 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 17 | 2.8 | 188.9 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 100.0 | - | 28.2 | 18.8 |
| Patrick Downes | - | 5 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 12 | 3.0 | 80.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Nico Gordon | - | 9 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 14 | 1.6 | 155.6 | 33.3 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 42.0 | 33.3 |
| Hamilton Roth | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -15 | -1.2 | -65.9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.02 | 0.0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG