Ursinus Bears
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2023 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1058 (#162) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1050 (#261) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1050 (#174) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.5 (#126) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.1 (#352) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.594 (#405) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.653 (#35) | NetEff +4.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.395 (#403) | AdjNet -3.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.386 (#401) | AdjNet -4.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.433 (#406) | AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 79.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.607 (#206) | AdjO 80.6 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.568 (#341) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.583 (#333) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1104 (#169) | RD 96 | GP 21 |
2023 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-08 | @ | FDU-Florham | W | 75 - 56 |
| 2022-11-12 | @ | Rosemont | W | 91 - 77 |
| 2022-11-15 | vs | TCNJ | W | 99 - 72 |
| 2022-11-19 | vs | Widener | W | 90 - 86 |
| 2022-11-22 | vs | Franklin & Marshall | W | 88 - 87 |
| 2022-11-29 | @ | Muhlenberg | L | 65 - 69 |
| 2022-12-03 | @ | McDaniel | W | 67 - 57 |
| 2022-12-10 | vs | Immaculata | W | 73 - 49 |
| 2022-12-29 | @ | DeSales | L | 69 - 83 |
| 2022-12-30 | vs | Alvernia | L | 90 - 104 |
| 2023-01-04 | vs | Washington Col. | W | 92 - 79 |
| 2023-01-07 | vs | Gettysburg | L | 77 - 80 |
| 2023-01-10 | @ | Dickinson | W | 80 - 72 |
| 2023-01-12 | vs | Haverford | W | 89 - 79 |
| 2023-01-14 | @ | Johns Hopkins | L | 51 - 67 |
| 2023-01-18 | @ | Swarthmore | L | 61 - 63 |
| 2023-01-21 | vs | McDaniel | W | 81 - 62 |
| 2023-01-26 | @ | Franklin & Marshall | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2023-01-28 | vs | Dickinson | W | 70 - 61 |
| 2023-02-01 | @ | Haverford | W | 72 - 66 |
| 2023-02-04 | @ | Gettysburg | L | 67 - 72 |
| 2023-02-07 | vs | Swarthmore | L | 58 - 74 |
| 2023-02-11 | @ | Washington Col. | W | 85 - 60 |
| 2023-02-15 | vs | Muhlenberg | L | 61 - 94 |
| 2023-02-18 | vs | Johns Hopkins | L | 76 - 85 |
| 2023-02-21 | @ | Muhlenberg | L | 53 - 74 |
2023 Roster
No roster data available for this season.