Ursinus Bears
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2022 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1058 (#162) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1050 (#261) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1050 (#174) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.5 (#126) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.1 (#352) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.594 (#405) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.653 (#35) | NetEff +4.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.395 (#403) | AdjNet -3.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.386 (#401) | AdjNet -4.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.433 (#406) | AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 79.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.607 (#206) | AdjO 80.6 | AdjD 75.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.568 (#341) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.583 (#333) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1104 (#172) | RD 96 | GP 21 |
2022 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-13 | vs | Rosemont | W | 78 - 70 |
| 2021-11-17 | @ | TCNJ | L | 63 - 79 |
| 2021-11-20 | @ | Immaculata | W | 73 - 69 |
| 2021-11-23 | @ | Franklin & Marshall | W | 70 - 68 |
| 2021-11-30 | vs | Muhlenberg | W | 77 - 71 |
| 2021-12-04 | vs | McDaniel | W | 84 - 79 |
| 2021-12-07 | vs | FDU-Florham | W | 82 - 59 |
| 2021-12-21 | vs | Susquehanna | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2022-01-08 | @ | Gettysburg | L | 65 - 77 |
| 2022-01-11 | vs | Dickinson | W | 94 - 79 |
| 2022-01-13 | @ | Haverford | W | 87 - 69 |
| 2022-01-15 | vs | Johns Hopkins | L | 90 - 99 |
| 2022-01-19 | vs | Swarthmore | L | 61 - 78 |
| 2022-01-22 | @ | McDaniel | L | 63 - 79 |
| 2022-01-24 | @ | Washington Col. | W | 74 - 71 |
| 2022-01-27 | vs | Franklin & Marshall | W | 97 - 77 |
| 2022-02-02 | vs | Haverford | L | 68 - 77 |
| 2022-02-05 | vs | Gettysburg | - | Preview |
| 2022-02-08 | @ | Swarthmore | - | Preview |
| 2022-02-10 | @ | Widener | - | Preview |
| 2022-02-12 | vs | Washington Col. | W | 86 - 75 |
| 2022-02-14 | @ | Dickinson | L | 66 - 71 |
| 2022-02-16 | @ | Muhlenberg | L | 77 - 83 |
| 2022-02-19 | @ | Johns Hopkins | L | 68 - 84 |
| 2022-02-22 | @ | Dickinson | W | 73 - 67 |
| 2022-02-25 | @ | Johns Hopkins | L | 75 - 81 |
2022 Roster
No roster data available for this season.