UT Permian Basin
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 916 (#369) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 947 (#350) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 950 (#481) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.2 (#194) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.9 (#359) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.503 (#333) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.137 (#276) | NetEff -16.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.770 (#254) | AdjNet +10.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.772 (#256) | AdjNet +10.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.678 (#253) | AdjO 80.2 | AdjD 72.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.427 (#430) | AdjO 79.7 | AdjD 83.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.424 (#381) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.422 (#381) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 945 (#283) | RD 99 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | UTEP | L | 56 - 98 |
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Adams St. | L | 69 - 81 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Western Colo. | W | 83 - 71 |
| 2025-11-18 | vs | McMurry | W | 104 - 76 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Sul Ross St. | L | 61 - 67 |
| 2025-11-28 | @ | CSU Pueblo | L | 69 - 78 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | MSU Denver | W | 103 - 93 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Lubbock Christian | L | 59 - 78 |
| 2025-12-05 | @ | Midwestern St. | L | 86 - 96 |
| 2025-12-11 | vs | Tex. A&M-Kingsville | L | 47 - 50 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Tex. A&M Int'l | L | 69 - 72 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Pittsburg St. | W | 75 - 68 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Ark.-Fort Smith | L | 64 - 78 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | DBU | L | 72 - 94 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs | UT Tyler | L | 58 - 83 |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Okla. Christian | W | 82 - 80 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Cameron | W | 115 - 108 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Angelo St. | L | 77 - 80 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Texas-Dallas | W | 78 - 70 |
| 2026-01-22 | @ | Tex. A&M Int'l | W | 100 - 95 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Angelo St. | L | 80 - 91 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Sul Ross St. | W | 81 - 63 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Western N.M. | L | 90 - 99 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tash Lunday | - | 23 | 35.9 | 17.2 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 11.3 | 15.0 | -102 | -4.6 | -24.6 | 47.5 | 41.0 | 82.7 | -0.99 | 59.9 | 50.6 |
| Sharrod Taylor | - | 19 | 28.1 | 14.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 10.9 | 11.1 | -3 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 39.9 | 41.8 | 71.9 | 1.36 | 56.8 | 52.2 |
| Bryceson Burns | - | 23 | 32.3 | 12.9 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 10.2 | 9.3 | -80 | -3.6 | -19.4 | 44.0 | 36.8 | 73.9 | -0.39 | 56.0 | 52.4 |
| Phoenix Bullock | - | 14 | 27.0 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 10.2 | 7.1 | - | - | - | 40.6 | 22.4 | 63.6 | - | 48.3 | 45.1 |
| Rashad Kee | - | 23 | 23.9 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 7.4 | 8.2 | -68 | -3.1 | -35.6 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 73.2 | -3.33 | 56.9 | 52.0 |
| Kainan Thomas | - | 9 | 16.5 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | -22 | -2.8 | -61.2 | 42.3 | 43.2 | 37.5 | 1.01 | 56.7 | 57.7 |
| Connor Morris | - | 23 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | -42 | -1.9 | -33.8 | 43.1 | 34.4 | 70.0 | -0.6 | 57.3 | 56.5 |
| Kyle McElroy | - | 23 | 26.0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 6.3 | -45 | -2.0 | -14.6 | 54.7 | 0 | 54.5 | 0.39 | 56.0 | 54.7 |
| Marcus Burnett | - | 12 | 11.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | -14 | -1.3 | -20.8 | 25.6 | 7.7 | 58.3 | -1.9 | 34.5 | 26.7 |
| Brady Watson | - | 22 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -33 | -1.6 | -50.1 | 32.4 | 31.8 | 75.0 | -1.3 | 50.2 | 41.9 |
| Mouhamadou Cissé | - | 2 | 15.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4.5 | -11 | -5.5 | -20.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.22 | 42.0 | 0.0 |
| Tristan Lewis | - | 21 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -10 | -0.5 | -2.1 | 20.0 | 13.3 | 63.3 | -0.18 | 38.2 | 23.3 |
| Diego Rodriguez | - | 2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 56.8 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG