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USC Upstate

Also known as: USC Upstate
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1010 (#333) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1021 (#304) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1045 (#195) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +14.9 (#158) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 1.000 (#28) -
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.358 (#514) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +37.7 More → 0.988 (#122) AdjNet +37.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +2.1 More → 0.561 (#362) AdjNet +2.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +38.6 More → 0.993 (#108) AdjNet +38.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +2.0 More → 0.559 (#361) AdjNet +2.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 93.0 | AdjD 58.6 More → 0.958 (#71) AdjO 93.0 | AdjD 58.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 61.6 | AdjD 60.6 More → 0.523 (#359) AdjO 61.6 | AdjD 60.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.7 | AdjD 54.5 More → 0.784 (#68) AdjO 68.7 | AdjD 54.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.762 (#159) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.764 (#150) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 126 | GP 23 More → 1081 (#204) RD 126 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Cal Poly - Incomplete score
2025-11-08 @ Wilmington (OH) - Incomplete score
2025-11-09 vs Chris. Newport - Incomplete score
2025-11-14 @ Whittier - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 @ La Verne - Incomplete score
2025-11-17 @ Claremont-M-S - Incomplete score
2025-11-24 vs Occidental - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Menlo - Incomplete score
2025-11-28 vs Willamette - Incomplete score
2025-11-29 vs Cal Lutheran - Incomplete score
2025-11-29 vs Willamette - Incomplete score
2025-12-02 vs UC Merced - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 @ Caltech - Incomplete score
2025-12-14 @ Cal Lutheran - Incomplete score
2025-12-17 vs Agnes Scott - Incomplete score
2025-12-17 @ Whitworth - Incomplete score
2025-12-29 @ UMass Dartmouth - Incomplete score
2025-12-30 @ Babson - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 @ Cal Maritime - Incomplete score
2026-01-13 @ Simpson (CA) - Incomplete score
2026-02-05 vs Simpson (CA) - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Emilie Ngo - 12 35.8 15.9 4.1 6.2 2.6 0.3 3.5 12.8 12.8 - - - 46.1 32.7 70.2 3.71 54.7 51.3
Alexa Litchev - 9 27.5 12.7 8.0 1.6 0.7 0.4 3.1 10.7 9.6 - - - 47.9 37.5 73.1 1.48 53.1 49.5
Anna Marshall - 1 30.0 11.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 14.0 -2.0 -19 -1.1 -23.7 21.4 20.0 50.0 -0.44 31.4 25.0
Te'Niyah Lindsey - 1 29.0 11.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 14.0 -4.0 - - - 28.6 0 100.0 - 35.9 28.6
Claire Galbo - 7 30.8 10.9 5.3 1.1 1.3 0.9 2.0 7.4 10.0 - - - 50.0 46.2 75.0 0.75 64.4 61.5
Alyssa Jackson - 12 32.5 9.4 2.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 1.4 10.5 2.0 72 3.8 23.9 30.2 31.4 62.5 -1.89 43.6 42.9
Danielle Tyner - 13 22.1 7.4 6.9 1.5 0.3 0.2 1.8 4.9 9.7 - - - 70.3 100.0 62.5 1.94 71.1 71.1
Bria Tate - 13 23.6 7.4 2.6 1.5 1.3 0.0 2.1 7.1 3.6 - - - 40.2 25.0 87.5 -0.57 48.5 44.6
Sarah Reuter - 12 27.2 7.3 6.4 1.8 0.7 0.7 2.8 6.0 8.1 - - - 52.8 0.0 30.0 0.55 49.1 52.8
Moriah Bowles - 1 32.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 2.0 - - - 22.2 33.3 0 2.28 33.3 33.3
Jenna Gorton - 3 22.8 5.0 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.3 2.0 6.7 4.0 - - - 25.0 0.0 83.3 -0.56 33.1 25.0
Katie Busch - 11 16.5 3.1 2.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.2 3.5 1.7 - - - 33.3 29.6 0 -2.97 43.6 43.6
Lupe Lemus - 1 22.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 - - - 50.0 0 50.0 -2.9 52.1 50.0
Mariah Napoleon - 1 13.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 - - - 100.0 100.0 0 - 150.0 150.0
Cerina Nguyen - 1 15.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 - - - 25.0 0.0 50.0 - 30.7 25.0
Angie Iheanachor - 1 19.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 - - - 25.0 0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Lia Papador - 10 13.7 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.9 - - - 33.3 0.0 50.0 -3.01 37.4 33.3
Evelyn Sanchez - 3 4.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.3 - - - 40.0 25.0 0 0.17 50.0 50.0
Monet Dunham - 1 21.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 -1.0 -107 -5.6 -26.5 0.0 0 0 -4.04 0.0 0.0
Harley Wilson - 1 18.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG