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UMBC

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: UMBC
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1099 (#146) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1027 (#261) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +57.4 (#15) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 1.000 (#75) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +74.7 More → 1.000 (#20) NetEff +74.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +59.6 More → 0.999 (#44) AdjNet +59.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +59.6 More → 0.999 (#43) AdjNet +59.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 91.3 | AdjD 54.1 More → 0.967 (#61) AdjO 91.3 | AdjD 54.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 85.0 | AdjD 51.8 More → 0.953 (#3) AdjO 85.0 | AdjD 51.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.984 (#4) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.980 (#4) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Stevenson W 90 - 49
2025-12-30 vs Notre Dame (MD) W 104 - 22

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jade Tillman - 2 19.6 22.5 5.0 0.5 2.5 1.0 2.0 14.0 15.5 - - - 64.3 36.4 83.3 - 73.4 71.4
Heidi Williams - 2 22.2 15.5 7.5 1.5 3.5 1.5 2.0 12.0 15.5 -149 -7.1 -96.8 58.3 28.6 25.0 -1.03 60.2 62.5
Delaney Yarborough - 2 19.0 13.5 10.5 1.0 0.0 2.5 1.0 8.5 18.0 - - - 64.7 0 71.4 - 67.2 64.7
Alaina Williams - 2 13.5 9.5 7.5 0.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 5.0 14.0 143 6.5 31.2 70.0 0 83.3 3.1 75.2 70.0
Tiara Bellamy - 2 22.8 8.5 2.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 3.0 7.5 5.0 - - - 46.7 33.3 100.0 - 53.5 50.0
Kennedy Austin - 2 16.4 7.5 1.0 2.5 3.5 0.0 2.0 5.5 7.0 - - - 27.3 25.0 88.9 - 50.1 31.8
Carmen Yanez - 2 29.8 6.5 1.0 10.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 7.5 9.0 - - - 33.3 33.3 0 - 43.3 43.3
Maisie Crowley - 2 12.9 6.5 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 4.5 8.0 - - - 55.6 33.3 66.7 - 63.0 61.1
Lauren Thompson - 2 22.4 5.0 1.5 0.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 6.0 3.5 - - - 25.0 20.0 100.0 - 38.8 33.3
Gabby Scott - 1 23.8 4.0 6.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 6.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Dagny Slomack - 1 18.7 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -3.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG