UMBC
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
86.8
PPG
49.8
Opp
+37.0
Margin
47.2%
FG%
36.5%
3P%
68.8%
FT%
40.8
RPG
16.8
APG
12.5
TO
73.6
Est. poss./game
70.2
Adj PPG
62.8
Adj Opp PPG
#124
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1017 (#153) | Preseason prior 965 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1039, returning -16, transfers -58, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1012 (#149) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1013 (#149) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +3.4 (#133) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.4 (#133) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.854 (#77) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.597 (#127) | AdjNet +9.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.587 (#133) | AdjNet +8.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.579 (#124) | AdjO 70.2 | AdjD 62.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.579 (#122) | AdjO 70.2 | AdjD 62.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.583 (#128) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.583 (#129) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1029 (#141) | RD 186 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.547 (#140) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Stevenson Mustangs | W | 92 - 29 |
| 2026-11-05 | vs | Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | W | 79 - 53 |
| 2026-11-08 | @ | Quinnipiac Bobcats | W | 91 - 67 |
| 2026-11-13 | vs | Morgan State Lady Bears | W | 85 - 50 |
| 2026-11-15 | @ | Towson Tigers | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-18 | @ | Pittsburgh Panthers | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-21 | @ | Brown Bears | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heidi Williams
|
G | 4 | 23.0 | 16.8 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 13.5 | 15.8 | 118 | 4 | 29.5 | 51.2 | 50.0 | 28.6 | 57.9 | 4.54 | 53.7 | 51.9 |
Angela Williams
|
G | 4 | 17.2 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 94 | 4 | 23.5 | 55.6 | 57.9 | 42.9 | 50.0 | 3.85 | 65.2 | 65.8 |
Dagny Slomack
|
G | 4 | 22.2 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 79 | 4 | 19.8 | 38.9 | 50.0 | 52.2 | 83.3 | 1.58 | 75.1 | 71.4 |
Kennedy Austin
|
G | 4 | 20.0 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 12.0 | 111 | 4 | 27.8 | 58.5 | 43.5 | 25.0 | 84.2 | 4.09 | 59.0 | 45.7 |
Alaina Williams
|
F | 4 | 18.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 90 | 4 | 22.5 | 50.0 | 59.3 | 0 | 71.4 | 2.24 | 61.5 | 59.3 |
Alden Yergey
|
G | 4 | 15.0 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 38 | 4 | 9.5 | 26.3 | 40.9 | 30.0 | 100.0 | 0.25 | 52.6 | 47.7 |
Shariah Baynes
|
G | 4 | 21.0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 32 | 4 | 8.0 | 16.1 | 31.8 | 28.6 | 66.7 | -3.64 | 42.4 | 36.4 |
Maisie Crowley
|
F | 4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 13 | 4 | 3.2 | 17.9 | 46.7 | 60.0 | 100.0 | -1.58 | 59.8 | 56.7 |
Sadaya Jones
|
G | 1 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 13 | 1 | 13.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.95 | 41.2 | 0.0 |
Tiara Bellamy
|
G | 4 | 19.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 79 | 4 | 19.8 | 42.5 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.21 | 50.6 | 50.0 |
Gabby Scott
|
F | 4 | 13.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 23 | 4 | 5.8 | 18.4 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | -3.06 | 34.9 | 33.3 |
Jeanine Brandsma
|
F | 4 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 13 | 4 | 3.2 | 15.1 | 60.0 | 0 | 0 | -3.96 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
Syd Sutton
|
G | 3 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 3 | 2.3 | 15.4 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.5 | 22.8 | 14.3 |
Cai Roberson
|
F | 4 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 10 | 4 | 2.5 | 20.7 | 100.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.03 | 72.5 | 100.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
265 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Heidi WilliamsAngela WilliamsDagny SlomackAlaina WilliamsAlden YergeyKennedy AustinShariah Baynes
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 50-74 | 67.6 | 100 | Heidi Williams 34% (34 pts) | Alaina Williams 18% (18 pts) | Heidi Williams 38% (9 misses) | Kennedy Austin 17% (4 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 28-67 | 41.8 | 56 | Alaina Williams 25% (14 pts) | Heidi Williams 21% (12 pts) | Alaina Williams 21% (8 misses) | Heidi Williams 21% (8 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 5-16 | 31.2 | 10 | Angela Williams 40% (4 pts) | Heidi Williams 20% (2 pts) | Shariah Baynes 27% (3 misses) | Alden Yergey 18% (2 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 6-8 | 75.0 | 12 | Alden Yergey 17% (2 pts) | Dagny Slomack 17% (2 pts) | Angela Williams 50% (1 misses) | Heidi Williams 50% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 5-15 | 33.3 | 10 | Angela Williams 40% (4 pts) | Tiara Bellamy 40% (4 pts) | Kennedy Austin 30% (3 misses) | Angela Williams 20% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 5-22 | 22.7 | 15 | Angela Williams 40% (6 pts) | Dagny Slomack 40% (6 pts) | Dagny Slomack 29% (5 misses) | Angela Williams 18% (3 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 4-13 | 30.8 | 12 | Angela Williams 50% (6 pts) | Alden Yergey 25% (3 pts) | Angela Williams 22% (2 misses) | Dagny Slomack 22% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 9-19 | 47.4 | 27 | Dagny Slomack 44% (12 pts) | Heidi Williams 22% (6 pts) | Alden Yergey 30% (3 misses) | Shariah Baynes 30% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 5-12 | 41.7 | 15 | Angela Williams 20% (3 pts) | Dagny Slomack 20% (3 pts) | Dagny Slomack 29% (2 misses) | Gabby Scott 29% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 8-19 | 42.1 | 24 | Dagny Slomack 50% (12 pts) | Maisie Crowley 25% (6 pts) | Angela Williams 18% (2 misses) | Dagny Slomack 18% (2 misses) |