UCF
Model Outputs
1996-1997
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 662 (#293) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 690 (#301) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 866 (#291) | HCA +127 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -16.5 (#295) | HCA +3.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -16.5 (#299) | HCA +3.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.181 (#278) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.068 (#293) | AdjNet -22.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.067 (#293) | AdjNet -22.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.202 (#296) | AdjO 63.9 | AdjD 79.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.276 (#296) | AdjO 66.4 | AdjD 77.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.154 (#297) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.164 (#297) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 676 (#300) | RD 175 | GP 24 |
1997 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996-11-22 | @ | Florida | L | 63 - 80 |
| 1996-11-27 | vs | Winthrop | L | 78 - 83 |
| 1996-12-07 | vs | Bethune-Cookman | W | 69 - 57 |
| 1996-12-14 | @ | South Florida | L | 47 - 66 |
| 1996-12-19 | @ | NC State | L | 52 - 70 |
| 1996-12-23 | vs | Youngstown State | L | 74 - 83 |
| 1996-12-28 | N | Canisius | L | 55 - 80 |
| 1996-12-29 | N | Coastal Carolina | L | 71 - 77 |
| 1997-01-02 | vs | Jacksonville State | L | 74 - 75 |
| 1997-01-04 | vs | Samford | L | 65 - 68 |
| 1997-01-09 | @ | Centenary (LA) | L | 56 - 64 |
| 1997-01-11 | @ | Southeastern Louisiana | W | 92 - 89 |
| 1997-01-16 | @ | Mercer | W | 77 - 60 |
| 1997-01-18 | vs | Georgia State | W | 85 - 68 |
| 1997-01-23 | @ | Florida Atlantic | L | 55 - 78 |
| 1997-01-25 | @ | Florida International | L | 55 - 96 |
| 1997-01-30 | vs | College of Charleston | L | 63 - 87 |
| 1997-02-01 | vs | Campbell | W | 84 - 69 |
| 1997-02-03 | vs | Stetson | L | 59 - 71 |
| 1997-02-06 | @ | College of Charleston | L | 61 - 90 |
| 1997-02-08 | @ | Campbell | L | 76 - 82 |
| 1997-02-15 | @ | Stetson | L | 70 - 85 |
| 1997-02-20 | vs | Florida International | L | 75 - 91 |
| 1997-02-22 | vs | Florida Atlantic | L | 66 - 81 |
1997 Roster
No roster data available for this season.