UCF
Model Outputs
1995-1996
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 886 (#204) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 863 (#238) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 979 (#177) | HCA +97 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -8.3 (#238) | HCA +3.6 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -4.2 (#203) | HCA +3.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.284 (#245) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.227 (#233) | AdjNet -10.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.223 (#233) | AdjNet -10.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.325 (#245) | AdjO 70.8 | AdjD 78.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.428 (#212) | AdjO 73.7 | AdjD 76.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.354 (#222) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.374 (#219) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 894 (#221) | RD 121 | GP 29 |
1996 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995-11-29 | @ | Winthrop | W | 77 - 65 |
| 1995-12-02 | vs | Northern Iowa | L | 78 - 95 |
| 1995-12-11 | vs | South Florida | L | 82 - 92 |
| 1995-12-17 | vs | Eastern Kentucky | L | 72 - 79 |
| 1995-12-19 | @ | Georgia | L | 54 - 103 |
| 1995-12-21 | @ | Northern Iowa | L | 71 - 76 |
| 1995-12-28 | N | Davidson | L | 51 - 90 |
| 1995-12-29 | @ | Nevada–Las Vegas | L | 53 - 74 |
| 1996-01-04 | @ | Jacksonville State | W | 93 - 73 |
| 1996-01-06 | @ | Samford | L | 78 - 92 |
| 1996-01-11 | vs | Centenary (LA) | L | 60 - 84 |
| 1996-01-13 | vs | Southeastern Louisiana | L | 84 - 95 |
| 1996-01-15 | vs | NC State | L | 74 - 81 |
| 1996-01-18 | vs | Mercer | L | 65 - 67 |
| 1996-01-20 | @ | Georgia State | W | 95 - 75 |
| 1996-01-25 | vs | Florida Atlantic | W | 79 - 68 |
| 1996-01-27 | vs | Florida International | L | 78 - 83 |
| 1996-02-01 | @ | College of Charleston | L | 61 - 103 |
| 1996-02-03 | @ | Campbell | W | 79 - 58 |
| 1996-02-05 | @ | Stetson | W | 75 - 66 |
| 1996-02-08 | vs | College of Charleston | L | 65 - 69 |
| 1996-02-10 | vs | Campbell | L | 69 - 70 |
| 1996-02-17 | vs | Stetson | W | 73 - 62 |
| 1996-02-22 | @ | Florida International | L | 86 - 93 |
| 1996-02-24 | @ | Florida Atlantic | L | 71 - 88 |
| 1996-02-29 | N | Southeastern Louisiana | W | 83 - 80 |
| 1996-03-01 | N | Campbell | W | 80 - 71 |
| 1996-03-02 | N | Mercer | W | 86 - 77 |
| 1996-03-14 | N | Massachusetts | L | 70 - 92 |
1996 Roster
No roster data available for this season.