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UC Merced

Season: 2026 2025 2022 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: UC Merced
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 927 (#430) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 960 (#552) HCA +62 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +8.6 (#221) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.306 (#535) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -7.9 More → 0.256 (#429) NetEff -7.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.6 More → 0.397 (#410) AdjNet -3.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.5 More → 0.398 (#409) AdjNet -3.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 70.9 More → 0.462 (#391) AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 70.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 62.1 More → 0.577 (#263) AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 62.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.557 (#332) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.546 (#342) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-02 @ UC Santa Cruz L 72 - 79

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Sarina Nagra - 1 40.1 22.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 17.0 13.0 - - - 52.9 25.0 50.0 - 58.6 58.8
Mariah Flores - 1 32.4 13.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 11.0 7.0 - - - 36.4 75.0 100.0 - 54.7 50.0
Quinn Godfrey - 1 38.0 12.0 9.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 12.0 13.0 - - - 50.0 0 0.0 - 45.0 50.0
Paloma Ramirez - 1 25.3 7.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 3.0 - - - 28.6 0.0 75.0 - 40.0 28.6
Nicole Lukito - 1 4.4 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 - - - 50.0 100.0 0 - 62.5 62.5
Jazzy Beltran - 1 37.1 4.0 2.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 5.0 - - - 12.5 0.0 66.7 - 21.5 12.5
Ixchel Rojo Valdez - 1 9.4 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 50.0 - 42.0 33.3
Elise LeBeau - 1 18.9 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0
Campbell Mathews - 1 6.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 -12 -0.7 -4.1 0.0 0 100.0 -1.87 53.2 0.0
Sydney Boyd - 1 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Kylie Salzler - 1 5.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 -3.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG