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UC Merced

Season: 2026 2025 2022 2019 2017 2016 2015
Also known as: UC Merced
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 959 (#406) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 933 (#425) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 960 (#552) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +0.1 (#220) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +8.6 (#221) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.306 (#535) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -7.9 More → 0.256 (#429) NetEff -7.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.6 More → 0.397 (#410) AdjNet -3.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.5 More → 0.398 (#409) AdjNet -3.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 70.9 More → 0.462 (#391) AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 70.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 62.1 More → 0.577 (#263) AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 62.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.559 (#330) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.549 (#339) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 342 | GP 1 More → 901 (#421) RD 342 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-02 @ UC Santa Cruz - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.