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Troy

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Troy Trojans
Program History
Coach: Phil Cunningham

2018 Team Stats (7 games)

70.7
PPG
67.3
Opp
+3.4
Margin
43.4%
FG%
34.8%
3P%
69.7%
FT%
35.4
RPG
13.9
APG
12.1
TO
-
Est. poss./game
72.4
Adj PPG
72.4
Adj Opp PPG
#166
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1019 (#162) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 955 (#205) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1006 (#166) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -0.1 (#168) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → -1.2 (#181) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.524 (#156) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.9 More → 0.474 (#176) AdjNet -0.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -1.0 More → 0.472 (#176) AdjNet -1.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.4 | AdjD 72.4 More → 0.502 (#166) AdjO 72.4 | AdjD 72.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 71.1 More → 0.501 (#166) AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 71.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.497 (#174) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.497 (#173) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 128 | GP 31 More → 968 (#193) RD 128 | GP 31

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 @ North Dakota Fighting Hawks L 80 - 83
2017-11-12 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions W 81 - 57
2017-11-13 @ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors L 67 - 72
2017-11-16 vs Brewton Parker Wildcats W 106 - 71
2017-11-20 @ Kentucky Wildcats L 62 - 70
2017-11-22 @ East Tennessee State Buccaneers W 73 - 65
2017-11-27 vs Delaware State Hornets W 95 - 64
2017-11-29 vs UIC Flames W 87 - 66
2017-12-05 vs UAB Blazers L 78 - 90
2017-12-10 @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles L 71 - 89
2017-12-16 @ Arkansas Razorbacks L 63 - 88
2017-12-19 @ Austin Peay Governors L 73 - 75
2017-12-21 vs Milligan Buffaloes W 80 - 67
2017-12-29 vs Georgia Southern Eagles L 80 - 86
2017-12-31 vs Georgia State Panthers W 68 - 66
2018-01-04 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 76 - 86
2018-01-06 @ Texas State Bobcats L 56 - 57
2018-01-13 @ South Alabama Jaguars W 79 - 64
2018-01-18 vs App State Mountaineers - Postponed
2018-01-20 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 73 - 74
2018-01-22 vs App State Mountaineers W 81 - 79
2018-01-25 @ UL Monroe Warhawks L 71 - 76
2018-01-27 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 69 - 81
2018-02-03 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 80 - 63
2018-02-08 vs Arkansas State Red Wolves W 89 - 83
2018-02-10 vs Little Rock Trojans W 82 - 64
2018-02-15 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 66 - 65
2018-02-17 @ App State Mountaineers L 54 - 65
2018-02-22 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 76 - 81
2018-02-24 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 73 - 67
2018-03-01 @ Georgia State Panthers W 83 - 70
2018-03-03 @ Georgia Southern Eagles L 83 - 89
2018-03-07 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 69 - 62
2018-03-09 @ Georgia State Panthers L 51 - 73

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jordon Varnado Jordon Varnado F 26 31.2 18.0 7.0 1.7 0.7 1.4 2.2 4.2 22.4 42 20 2.1 2.9 44.5 30.0 79.3 2.96 190.2 48.6
Wesley Person Wesley Person G 33 34.0 17.6 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.0 1.8 2.8 18.4 -32 25 -1.3 -1.6 45.7 38.2 74.3 -0.68 266.0 56.9
Alex Hicks Alex Hicks F 33 26.4 11.7 8.4 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.1 19.2 -38 25 -1.5 -2.4 60.0 50.0 72.0 -0.58 238.9 65.0
B.J. Miller B.J. Miller G 33 28.3 7.5 3.0 3.2 1.2 0.3 1.7 1.9 11.7 4 25 0.2 0.2 35.5 25.0 58.8 1.7 179.2 38.7
Kevin Baker Kevin Baker G 33 24.8 6.8 2.6 3.2 0.8 0.0 1.9 1.5 9.8 -35 25 -1.4 -2.4 25.5 29.5 64.7 -1.48 191.5 38.2
Javan Johnson Javan Johnson - 33 16.9 5.8 3.0 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 7.8 -85 25 -3.4 -8.8 46.2 41.7 83.3 -3.84 214.5 59.0
Juan Davis Juan Davis F 31 21.3 5.7 4.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 9.2 -22 24 -0.9 -1.8 41.7 36.0 50.0 0.84 220.3 54.2
Shawn Hopkins Shawn Hopkins G 26 10.7 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 4.3 17 19 0.9 4.2 52.4 41.7 77.8 2.35 164.3 64.3
Darian Adams Darian Adams G 32 15.5 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 4.8 -47 25 -1.9 -5.4 52.6 38.5 55.6 -2.03 202.5 65.8
Malik Burnett Malik Burnett G 15 6.1 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 2.3 - - - - 0.0 0.0 50.0 - 244.8 0.0
Whit Moreman Whit Moreman F 5 2.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 - - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Jaro Moravek Jaro Moravek F 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG