Troy
Model Outputs
2002-2003
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1187 (#66) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1221 (#35) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1156 (#15) | HCA +112 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.4 (#105) | HCA +3.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +7.5 (#69) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.778 (#29) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.621 (#123) | AdjNet +4.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.620 (#123) | AdjNet +4.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.617 (#88) | AdjO 75.1 | AdjD 69.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.691 (#25) | AdjO 75.2 | AdjD 66.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.698 (#64) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.711 (#59) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1204 (#43) | RD 123 | GP 31 |
2003 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-11-25 | @ | Southeastern Louisiana | W | 87 - 81 |
| 2002-11-27 | @ | Southern Mississippi | L | 70 - 77 |
| 2002-11-30 | vs | Lipscomb | W | 95 - 77 |
| 2002-12-03 | @ | Arkansas | W | 74 - 66 |
| 2002-12-07 | @ | Alabama State | W | 80 - 71 |
| 2002-12-12 | @ | Lipscomb | W | 89 - 77 |
| 2002-12-17 | @ | Georgia Tech | L | 66 - 88 |
| 2002-12-20 | N | Northeastern | W | 89 - 72 |
| 2002-12-21 | N | Duquesne | W | 73 - 69 |
| 2002-12-22 | N | Auburn | L | 66 - 94 |
| 2002-12-30 | vs | Alabama State | W | 81 - 61 |
| 2003-01-04 | @ | Jacksonville | W | 70 - 68 |
| 2003-01-06 | @ | Stetson | W | 85 - 81 |
| 2003-01-09 | vs | Florida Atlantic | W | 77 - 72 |
| 2003-01-11 | vs | UCF | L | 61 - 76 |
| 2003-01-17 | vs | Mercer | W | 89 - 61 |
| 2003-01-24 | @ | Belmont | W | 67 - 64 |
| 2003-01-26 | vs | Samford | W | 66 - 48 |
| 2003-01-30 | @ | Gardner-Webb | W | 61 - 60 |
| 2003-02-01 | @ | Campbell | W | 100 - 75 |
| 2003-02-06 | vs | Georgia State | W | 99 - 81 |
| 2003-02-08 | vs | Jacksonville State | W | 71 - 51 |
| 2003-02-15 | @ | Mercer | L | 80 - 83 |
| 2003-02-20 | @ | UCF | W | 77 - 72 |
| 2003-02-22 | @ | Florida Atlantic | W | 76 - 66 |
| 2003-02-27 | vs | Stetson | W | 117 - 70 |
| 2003-03-01 | vs | Jacksonville | W | 94 - 72 |
| 2003-03-06 | N | Samford | W | 70 - 54 |
| 2003-03-07 | @ | Georgia State | W | 71 - 61 |
| 2003-03-08 | N | UCF | W | 80 - 69 |
| 2003-03-21 | N | Xavier | L | 59 - 71 |
2003 Roster
No roster data available for this season.