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Trevecca Nazarene

Also known as: Trevecca Nazarene
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1079 (#97) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1101 (#90) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1042 (#164) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +7.9 (#97) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +10.7 (#203) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.538 (#344) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +11.6 More → 0.821 (#171) NetEff +11.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +12.1 More → 0.801 (#274) AdjNet +12.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +12.5 More → 0.814 (#272) AdjNet +12.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 60.1 More → 0.691 (#261) AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 60.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 58.7 More → 0.660 (#114) AdjO 66.0 | AdjD 58.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.704 (#171) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.705 (#166) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 92 | GP 25 More → 1063 (#185) RD 92 | GP 25

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 @ Murray St. L 61 - 102
2025-11-08 vs Oakwood W 76 - 43
2025-11-11 vs Fisk W 80 - 37
2025-11-14 vs Barry W 54 - 46
2025-11-15 @ Lynn W 86 - 54
2025-11-19 vs Ky. Wesleyan L 69 - 75
2025-11-23 vs Emory & Henry W 80 - 38
2025-12-04 vs AUM W 62 - 61
2025-12-06 vs Montevallo W 76 - 57
2025-12-11 @ UAH L 61 - 80
2025-12-13 @ West Ala. L 60 - 64
2025-12-20 vs West Florida L 62 - 69
2025-12-31 @ Thomas More L 41 - 55
2026-01-10 @ Mississippi Col. W 81 - 56
2026-01-15 vs Christian Brothers W 67 - 48
2026-01-17 vs Union (TN) W 70 - 61
2026-01-22 @ Montevallo W 57 - 43
2026-01-24 @ AUM W 92 - 65
2026-01-29 vs West Ala. W 78 - 75
2026-01-31 vs UAH L 51 - 65
2026-02-05 @ West Florida W 76 - 62
2026-02-07 @ Valdosta St. L 64 - 78

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jordan Gillies - 22 34.6 15.2 6.8 4.6 2.3 1.4 3.3 13.6 13.5 61 2.7 12.1 38.1 33.6 78.2 -0.92 50.1 45.7
Tatum Shaw - 22 35.7 13.3 2.7 1.4 1.1 0.1 1.5 12.4 4.6 -15 -0.7 -3.0 42.1 31.9 68.8 -0.49 52.1 51.5
Cheyenne Trotter - 22 27.1 13.3 10.5 1.4 1.6 0.7 1.5 9.4 16.5 -20 -0.9 -5.4 54.9 0.0 70.5 -0.46 59.1 54.9
Brianna Burgess - 21 31.9 6.7 3.7 3.1 1.0 0.0 1.4 7.2 5.9 7 0.3 1.5 34.4 27.1 70.0 -1.95 44.1 42.1
Jayda Woods - 21 21.3 5.1 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.2 1.9 5.4 2.7 21 1.1 5.8 38.1 21.9 71.4 1.48 44.2 41.2
Ava Jones - 14 9.6 4.7 3.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.2 5.8 41 2.9 30.3 71.0 0.0 81.5 1.02 77.0 71.0
Shinae Howard Johnson - 20 12.6 3.8 2.5 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.2 40 2.1 43.9 37.2 23.5 56.0 -2.07 42.7 39.7
Natalia Hernandez - 22 19.3 3.4 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.2 3.2 2.3 -87 -4.3 -38.6 43.7 29.6 80.0 0.11 50.5 49.3
Ellie Butler - 17 8.5 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 3.6 1.5 -24 -1.5 -48.8 25.8 19.2 66.7 -1.26 35.0 29.8
Jeannae Bolin - 15 6.2 2.6 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.0 2.1 2.3 23 1.5 32.7 56.2 0 37.5 -0.87 54.9 56.2
Dayonna Perryman - 11 5.1 2.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 1.6 -24 -2.4 -177.8 40.0 0.0 83.3 -1.2 51.4 40.0
Storm Wilson - 3 4.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 -52 -2.6 -24.0 33.3 50.0 50.0 -1.43 51.5 50.0
Olivia Onyemobi - 5 2.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 -4 -0.8 -32.9 50.0 0 0 0.35 50.0 50.0
Carden Vailes - 8 2.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -11 -2.2 -70.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.32 0.0 0.0
Ava Cathey - 6 2.3 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.8 -6 -1.2 -49.3 0.0 0.0 0 0.35 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG