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Toledo

Season: 2026 2024 2015
Also known as: Toledo
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1042 (#153) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1089 (#115) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1019 (#250) HCA +75 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +18.3 (#110) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.981 (#130) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +46.1 More → 0.995 (#52) AdjNet +46.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +45.8 More → 0.996 (#55) AdjNet +45.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 85.0 | AdjD 52.7 More → 0.950 (#38) AdjO 85.0 | AdjD 52.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 61.9 More → 0.623 (#146) AdjO 67.5 | AdjD 61.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.772 (#124) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.750 (#135) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 296 | GP 1 More → 1122 (#93) RD 296 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-17 vs Wayne St. (MI) - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.