🐻⬇️🏀

Toledo

Season: 2026
Also known as: Toledo
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1017 (#214) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1057 (#161) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1005 (#246) HCA +95 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +33.6 (#10) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.998 (#17) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +33.2 More → 0.979 (#42) AdjNet +33.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +32.9 More → 0.981 (#37) AdjNet +32.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 94.4 | AdjD 67.6 More → 0.920 (#35) AdjO 94.4 | AdjD 67.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 83.8 | AdjD 72.6 More → 0.735 (#51) AdjO 83.8 | AdjD 72.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.880 (#19) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.853 (#27) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 343 | GP 1 More → 1099 (#121) RD 343 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-01 vs Central St. (OH) - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.