Toccoa Falls
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 992 (#395) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 962 (#419) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1014 (#334) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -14.9 (#313) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -20.6 (#692) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.604 (#400) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.126 (#602) | AdjNet -16.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.122 (#600) | AdjNet -17.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.235 (#619) | AdjO 61.2 | AdjD 74.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.321 (#652) | AdjO 68.0 | AdjD 76.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.203 (#658) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.227 (#649) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 963 (#418) | RD 227 | GP 5 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | @ | Piedmont | L | 68 - 77 |
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Huntingdon | L | 72 - 92 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | JWU Charlotte | W | 70 - 60 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Regent | W | 75 - 73 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | JWU Charlotte | W | 76 - 73 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Piedmont | L | 0 - 0 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gray-Watson | - | 4 | 32.9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 11.0 | 11.8 | - | - | - | 43.2 | 28.6 | 88.5 | - | 60.4 | 50.0 |
| Tony Perez | - | 5 | 22.4 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 51.4 | 30.0 | 100.0 | - | 61.6 | 55.7 |
| Tyriq Brown | - | 5 | 32.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 9.4 | 8.4 | - | - | - | 29.8 | 16.0 | 77.8 | - | 41.9 | 34.0 |
| Ryan Landers | - | 4 | 29.2 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 5.5 | - | - | - | 31.0 | 22.2 | 60.0 | - | 40.7 | 34.5 |
| David Witcher | - | 4 | 17.6 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 3.8 | - | - | - | 47.6 | 40.0 | 83.3 | - | 57.1 | 52.4 |
| Randall Robinson | - | 5 | 27.9 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 6.4 | 1.2 | -45 | -3.2 | -39.5 | 28.1 | 15.4 | 55.6 | 1.45 | 37.6 | 31.2 |
| Kaleb Thomas | - | 4 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 72 | 4.2 | 16.3 | 36.4 | 20.0 | 100.0 | 3.8 | 53.0 | 40.9 |
| Cortavion Williams | - | 4 | 14.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 63 | 6.3 | 39.4 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 0 | 4.84 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Davon Cottle | - | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Emmanuel Hughes | - | 3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 51.5 | 33.3 |
| Jeremiah Williams | - | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32 | 2.3 | 47.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.75 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG