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Thiel

Season:
Also known as: Thiel
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 949 (#335) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 898 (#470) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 997 (#463) HCA +62 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 785 (#700) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -18.5 (#348) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -27.8 (#661) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -28.2 (#666) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.007 (#718) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +80.6 More → 1.000 (#10) NetEff +80.6
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -19.3 More → 0.054 (#519) NetEff -19.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -48.4 More → 0.003 (#693) AdjNet -48.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -48.5 More → 0.003 (#692) AdjNet -48.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 50.3 | AdjD 83.7 More → 0.046 (#707) AdjO 50.3 | AdjD 83.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 62.0 More → 0.477 (#422) AdjO 61.0 | AdjD 62.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 73.1 More → 0.129 (#697) AdjO 52.1 | AdjD 73.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.272 (#548) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.078 (#675) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.261 (#564) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.079 (#679) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 1 More → 1000 (#300) RD 350 | GP 1
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 22 More → 750 (#510) RD 97 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

No games found for this season.

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.