Thiel
Model Outputs
2025-2026 latest available
No materialized model snapshot for 2022 yet, so this section is showing the latest available team-model rows.
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 945 (#355) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 989 (#339) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -17.0 (#516) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.029 (#583) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.102 (#619) | AdjNet -18.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.100 (#619) | AdjNet -18.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.218 (#614) | AdjO 70.5 | AdjD 84.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.365 (#486) | AdjO 70.0 | AdjD 76.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.214 (#522) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.239 (#518) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 901 (#363) | RD 347 | GP 1 |
2022 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-22 | @ | Lake Erie | L | 60 - 96 |
2022 Roster
No roster data available for this season.