Thiel
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 945 (#355) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 989 (#339) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -17.0 (#516) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.029 (#583) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.102 (#619) | AdjNet -18.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.100 (#619) | AdjNet -18.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.218 (#614) | AdjO 70.5 | AdjD 84.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.365 (#486) | AdjO 70.0 | AdjD 76.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.214 (#522) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.239 (#518) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 901 (#355) | RD 347 | GP 1 |
2026 Schedule & Results
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamari Accursio-Harris | - | 1 | 28.5 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 46.6 | 50.0 |
| Kadenne Kemp | - | 1 | 30.6 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 37.5 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 45.0 | 43.8 |
| Mike Brown | - | 1 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | -17 | -1.1 | -89.1 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.77 | 51.5 | 33.3 |
| Logan Lentz | - | 1 | 15.2 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 100.0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| John Morgan | - | 1 | 23.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -3 | -0.4 | -19.5 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.47 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Anthony Henderson II | - | 1 | 28.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | -5.0 | -7 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | -0.61 | 22.2 | 22.2 |
| Adrian Llamo | - | 1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Christian Davis | - | 1 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 63 | 2.9 | 20.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ryan Grant | - | 1 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Elijah Nelson | - | 1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG