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The Citadel

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2014
Also known as: The Citadel
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1063 (#122) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1092 (#117) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1018 (#207) HCA +95 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +6.7 (#216) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.985 (#68) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +61.6 More → 0.998 (#47) NetEff +61.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +21.9 More → 0.926 (#102) AdjNet +21.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.8 More → 0.929 (#100) AdjNet +21.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 85.6 | AdjD 69.2 More → 0.817 (#104) AdjO 85.6 | AdjD 69.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 73.3 More → 0.662 (#96) AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 73.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.700 (#139) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.691 (#138) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 2 More → 1142 (#84) RD 350 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Erskine - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 vs North Greenville - Incomplete score
2025-12-09 vs Southern Wesleyan - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

No roster data available for this season.