The Citadel
Also known as: The Citadel
Program History
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1090 (#115) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1018 (#207) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.7 (#216) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.985 (#68) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.998 (#47) | NetEff +61.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.926 (#102) | AdjNet +21.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.929 (#100) | AdjNet +21.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.817 (#104) | AdjO 85.6 | AdjD 69.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.662 (#96) | AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 73.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.700 (#139) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.691 (#138) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1142 (#82) | RD 350 | GP 2 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | vs | Erskine | W | 105 - 61 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | North Greenville | W | 70 - 57 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | Southern Wesleyan | W | 98 - 73 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eze Wali | - | 3 | 22.8 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 11.7 | - | - | - | 54.2 | 46.7 | 80.0 | - | 70.6 | 68.8 |
| Sola Adebisi | - | 3 | 18.0 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 14.3 | - | - | - | 92.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 | - | 107.5 | 107.1 |
| Marcos Gonzales | - | 3 | 15.7 | 10.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 9.7 | - | - | - | 68.8 | 50.0 | 63.6 | - | 76.8 | 78.1 |
| Keynan Davis | - | 3 | 19.6 | 9.7 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 19 | 0.9 | 6.2 | 47.6 | 35.7 | 66.7 | -0.67 | 61.3 | 59.5 |
| Dante Kearse | - | 3 | 15.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 9.3 | - | - | - | 53.3 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 75.6 | 76.7 |
| Braxton Williams | - | 3 | 19.4 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 87 | 4.1 | 30.2 | 26.9 | 35.3 | 100.0 | 0.86 | 43.2 | 38.5 |
| Christian Moore | - | 3 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | -113 | -5.4 | -23.4 | 38.1 | 37.5 | 0 | 0.51 | 52.4 | 52.4 |
| Logan Applegate | - | 3 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 27.3 | 27.3 | 100.0 | - | 43.7 | 40.9 |
| Carter Kingsbury | - | 3 | 23.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 38.9 | 9.1 | 80.0 | - | 47.0 | 41.7 |
| Cassius Bonjasky | - | 3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 6.3 | - | - | - | 83.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | - | 93.2 | 91.7 |
| Gabe Hernandez | - | 3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 5.7 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 40.0 | 100.0 | - | 65.2 | 62.5 |
| Rowan Irelan | - | 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 60.0 | 0 | - | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| Logan Menefee | - | 2 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Aidan Alexander | - | 2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.5 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jameson Heck | - | 2 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jack Walter | - | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Chase Williams | - | 2 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 136 | 6.2 | 40.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Simeon German | - | 1 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG