🐻⬇️🏀

The Citadel

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2014
Also known as: The Citadel
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1090 (#115) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1018 (#207) HCA +95 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +6.7 (#216) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.985 (#68) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +61.6 More → 0.998 (#47) NetEff +61.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +21.9 More → 0.926 (#102) AdjNet +21.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.8 More → 0.929 (#100) AdjNet +21.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 85.6 | AdjD 69.2 More → 0.817 (#104) AdjO 85.6 | AdjD 69.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 73.3 More → 0.662 (#96) AdjO 80.7 | AdjD 73.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.700 (#139) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.691 (#138) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 350 | GP 2 More → 1142 (#82) RD 350 | GP 2

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-03 vs Erskine W 105 - 61
2025-11-19 vs North Greenville W 70 - 57
2025-12-09 vs Southern Wesleyan W 98 - 73

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Eze Wali - 3 22.8 12.3 5.0 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 8.0 11.7 - - - 54.2 46.7 80.0 - 70.6 68.8
Sola Adebisi - 3 18.0 10.7 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.7 14.3 - - - 92.9 100.0 100.0 - 107.5 107.1
Marcos Gonzales - 3 15.7 10.7 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.3 9.7 - - - 68.8 50.0 63.6 - 76.8 78.1
Keynan Davis - 3 19.6 9.7 2.7 3.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7.0 8.3 19 0.9 6.2 47.6 35.7 66.7 -0.67 61.3 59.5
Dante Kearse - 3 15.5 8.0 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.0 9.3 - - - 53.3 50.0 50.0 - 75.6 76.7
Braxton Williams - 3 19.4 8.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.7 8.7 4.3 87 4.1 30.2 26.9 35.3 100.0 0.86 43.2 38.5
Christian Moore - 3 19.3 7.3 2.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 2.7 -113 -5.4 -23.4 38.1 37.5 0 0.51 52.4 52.4
Logan Applegate - 3 12.2 6.7 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.3 2.0 - - - 27.3 27.3 100.0 - 43.7 40.9
Carter Kingsbury - 3 23.9 6.3 4.0 1.7 1.3 0.0 1.3 6.0 6.0 - - - 38.9 9.1 80.0 - 47.0 41.7
Cassius Bonjasky - 3 9.5 4.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.3 - - - 83.3 100.0 100.0 - 93.2 91.7
Gabe Hernandez - 3 8.7 3.7 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.7 5.7 - - - 50.0 40.0 100.0 - 65.2 62.5
Rowan Irelan - 3 3.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.7 3.3 - - - 60.0 60.0 0 - 90.0 90.0
Logan Menefee - 2 5.7 1.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 - - - 25.0 0 0 - 25.0 25.0
Aidan Alexander - 2 3.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.5 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Jameson Heck - 2 3.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 -0.5 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Jack Walter - 1 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Chase Williams - 2 2.9 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.5 136 6.2 40.7 0 0 0 2.43 0 0
Simeon German - 1 2.8 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG