🐻⬇️🏀

Tennessee State

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Tennessee State Tigers
Program History
Coach: Brian Collins

Model Outputs

2018-2019
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt. More → Data withheld: source-integrity hold Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt.
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 787 (#318) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +83 elo More → 914 (#302) HCA +83 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -9.9 (#309) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → -8.9 (#305) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.214 (#316) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -13.2 More → 0.180 (#302) AdjNet -13.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -13.4 More → 0.175 (#304) AdjNet -13.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 76.3 More → 0.299 (#310) AdjO 66.9 | AdjD 76.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.6 | AdjD 75.0 More → 0.358 (#309) AdjO 68.6 | AdjD 75.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.266 (#306) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.277 (#305) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 173 | GP 28 More → 795 (#315) RD 173 | GP 28

2019 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2018-11-10 @ Lipscomb Bisons L 79 - 86
2018-11-13 vs Little Rock Trojans L 67 - 83
2018-11-15 vs Carver College Cougars W 92 - 57
2018-11-17 vs Fisk Bulldogs W 113 - 61
2018-11-20 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 77 - 80
2018-11-23 @ Kentucky Wildcats L 62 - 77
2018-12-01 @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers L 74 - 88
2018-12-09 @ Coppin State Eagles W 64 - 55
2018-12-15 vs North Carolina A&T Aggies L 76 - 78
2018-12-18 @ Akron Zips L 60 - 82
2018-12-22 @ Memphis Tigers L 41 - 99
2018-12-29 @ Vanderbilt Commodores L 76 - 95
2019-01-03 vs Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles L 64 - 66
2019-01-05 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks L 62 - 69
2019-01-10 vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels W 82 - 81
2019-01-12 vs Morehead State Eagles L 61 - 74
2019-01-17 @ Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles W 79 - 62
2019-01-19 @ Belmont Bruins L 74 - 92
2019-01-24 @ Austin Peay Governors L 74 - 89
2019-01-26 @ Murray State Racers L 62 - 100
2019-01-31 vs UT Martin Skyhawks W 68 - 67
2019-02-02 vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 79 - 50
2019-02-07 @ Morehead State Eagles W 81 - 80
2019-02-09 @ Eastern Kentucky Colonels L 65 - 75
2019-02-14 vs Belmont Bruins L 66 - 77
2019-02-16 @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks L 65 - 84
2019-02-21 vs SIU Edwardsville Cougars L 84 - 85
2019-02-23 vs Eastern Illinois Panthers W 75 - 60
2019-02-28 @ Southeast Missouri State Redhawks L 74 - 89
2019-03-02 @ UT Martin Skyhawks L 86 - 91

2019 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jr. Clay Jr. Clay - 1 38.0 23.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 13.0 10.0 - - - - 69.2 50.0 60.0 - 75.7 76.9
Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey G 22 27.9 13.9 5.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 2.5 3.2 16.2 - - - - 42.9 36.7 70.4 - 186.2 50.7
Kamar McKnight Kamar McKnight G 24 29.5 11.9 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.1 2.5 3.0 12.0 - - - - 40.3 23.1 83.3 - 172.6 44.4
Michael Littlejohn Michael Littlejohn G 25 21.6 9.1 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.0 1.5 1.9 9.6 - - - - 37.5 34.3 85.7 - 222.2 50.0
Armani Chaney Armani Chaney G 21 25.6 8.0 2.4 2.8 1.3 0.0 2.4 1.1 11.0 - - - - 41.7 41.7 80.0 - 276.1 52.1
Tripp Davis Tripp Davis G 25 23.1 7.9 3.0 1.2 1.5 0.1 1.0 1.2 11.6 - - - - 50.0 38.9 71.4 - 272.4 61.7
Jalen Duke Jalen Duke G 5 15.4 7.0 1.6 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 10.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Stokley Chaffee Stokley Chaffee F 25 22.7 6.8 6.5 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.9 1.2 12.9 - - - - 62.1 0 72.7 - 252.7 62.1
Emmanuel Egbuta Emmanuel Egbuta F 23 18.2 6.8 4.8 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.5 10.4 - - - - 45.7 0 50.0 - 190.7 45.7
Dave Morris Dave Morris - 23 15.0 4.4 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.5 0.8 5.6 - - - - 33.3 50.0 81.8 - 221.1 44.4
Demarcus Mitchell Demarcus Mitchell - 3 5.3 4.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 7.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
DaJion Henderson DaJion Henderson - 24 11.5 3.8 3.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.3 5.9 - - - - 50.0 0 37.5 - 390.6 50.0
Monty Johal Monty Johal G 4 7.2 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.0 5.8 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Daniel Cummings Daniel Cummings G 11 11.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.6 - - - - 27.3 27.3 0.0 - 104.9 40.9
Damarri Moore Damarri Moore - 11 15.6 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.5 3.8 - - - - 0.0 0 100.0 - 161.6 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG