Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 908 (#432) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 984 (#381) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -3.1 (#250) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -3.5 (#379) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.678 (#233) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.679 (#311) | AdjNet +6.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.685 (#315) | AdjNet +6.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.584 (#343) | AdjO 70.4 | AdjD 66.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.478 (#350) | AdjO 75.0 | AdjD 76.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.393 (#405) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.401 (#400) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 834 (#426) | RD 350 | GP 3 |
2026 Schedule & Results
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Simmons | - | 3 | 25.1 | 15.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 7.0 | 12.7 | 11 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 57.1 | 58.8 | 81.2 | -1.86 | 83.8 | 81.0 |
| Arthur Williams | - | 3 | 28.6 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 90 | 5.3 | 34.1 | 41.4 | 18.2 | 60.0 | 1.62 | 47.9 | 44.8 |
| Eric Howard, Jr. | - | 3 | 29.9 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 84 | 3.8 | 24.1 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 44.4 | 2.34 | 33.4 | 28.6 |
| Isaiah Mayes | - | 3 | 18.9 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | - | 56.4 | 50.0 |
| Shaun Walker | - | 2 | 23.5 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 3.0 | - | - | - | 35.3 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 36.4 | 35.3 |
| Kenneth Jenkins, Jr. | - | 3 | 16.5 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 78 | 3.9 | 39.2 | 38.5 | 57.1 | 100.0 | -0.64 | 57.6 | 53.8 |
| Ethan Smith | - | 3 | 17.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 63 | 3.0 | 35.9 | 33.3 | 20.0 | 83.3 | 1.46 | 51.5 | 38.9 |
| Jalen Bing-Wallace | - | 3 | 17.9 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | - | - | - | 36.4 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 39.2 | 36.4 |
| Mason Donald | - | 3 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - | - | - | 42.9 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 57.1 | 57.1 |
| Derek Burditt | - | 2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Xzavier Gamory-Valcin | - | 2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG