🐻⬇️🏀

Stetson

Season: 2026 2022
Also known as: Stetson
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1032 (#246) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1090 (#157) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 1009 (#375) HCA +56 elo
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → +17.6 (#145) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.929 (#229) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +10.1 More → 0.762 (#250) AdjNet +10.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.9 More → 0.760 (#249) AdjNet +9.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 87.1 | AdjD 77.9 More → 0.698 (#230) AdjO 87.1 | AdjD 77.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 83.9 | AdjD 74.7 More → 0.698 (#108) AdjO 83.9 | AdjD 74.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.739 (#159) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.728 (#165) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 304 | GP 1 More → 1119 (#149) RD 304 | GP 1

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-12-15 vs Rhodes W 95 - 76

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ethan Copeland - 1 34.2 29.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 19.0 - - - 62.5 72.7 33.3 - 83.7 87.5
Jamie Phillips Jr. - 1 30.9 18.0 13.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 16.0 18.0 6 1.2 67.9 43.8 20.0 50.0 0.13 48.3 46.9
J.R. Leonard - 1 19.9 16.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 13.0 5.0 - - - 53.8 16.7 50.0 - 57.6 57.7
Calvin Sirmans III - 1 34.4 11.0 6.0 11.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 7.0 23.0 - - - 71.4 50.0 0 - 78.6 78.6
Collin Kuhl - 1 17.9 10.0 12.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 14.0 - - - 71.4 0 0 - 71.4 71.4
Matar Diop - 1 9.7 6.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 4.0 -33 -1.6 -11.6 60.0 0 0 0.59 60.0 60.0
Isaac Jones - 1 3.6 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 100.0 - 113.6 0
Janusz Ratowski - 1 10.6 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Ben Gladieux - 1 3.6 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 0.0 0 50.0 - 26.6 0.0
Alex Doyle - 1 6.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Miller McGowan - 1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 29 1.5 6.3 0 0 0 1.02 0 0
Sean Morgan - 1 17.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Finley Sheridan - 1 7.7 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG