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St. Mary's (IN)

Also known as: St. Mary's (IN)
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 885 (#424) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 935 (#418) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1055 (#169) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -0.3 (#195) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +5.9 (#261) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.119 (#622) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -10.0 More → 0.223 (#441) NetEff -10.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -13.1 More → 0.181 (#498) AdjNet -13.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -13.3 More → 0.172 (#495) AdjNet -13.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 71.8 More → 0.301 (#503) AdjO 62.5 | AdjD 71.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 54.8 More → 0.725 (#102) AdjO 65.4 | AdjD 54.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.677 (#236) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.692 (#222) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 122 | GP 9 More → 1053 (#251) RD 122 | GP 9

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-01-21 vs Adrian W 63 - 53
2026-01-23 @ Penn College W 66 - 49
2026-01-24 vs Albion L 56 - 75
2026-01-31 @ Calvin L 41 - 74
2026-01-31 vs Keystone W 92 - 28
2026-02-02 vs Penn St. Harrisburg W 78 - 47
2026-02-04 @ Notre Dame (MD) W 64 - 49
2026-02-04 @ Kalamazoo L 53 - 58
2026-02-07 @ Valley Forge W 100 - 15

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Olivia Liszt - 5 28.0 17.0 5.2 2.2 3.8 0.4 2.0 10.8 15.8 283 14.2 115.0 59.3 47.1 81.2 4.8 69.6 66.7
Keira Mason - 5 23.9 13.0 8.4 1.0 1.4 0.8 4.0 10.4 10.2 241 12.1 116.1 51.9 0 64.7 2.09 54.6 51.9
Tramarie Mobray - 5 22.0 11.2 3.2 4.2 2.8 0.2 2.0 8.0 11.6 189 9.4 97.2 52.5 33.3 75.0 2.82 59.5 55.0
Liv Fry - 4 24.5 8.2 5.8 1.5 2.0 0.2 3.8 4.8 9.2 - - - 47.4 57.1 57.9 - 60.3 57.9
Sam Blaylock - 1 12.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 4.0 -3 -3.0 -18.0 50.0 50.0 0 -0.76 66.7 66.7
Saffiyah Gibson - 5 9.4 8.0 1.2 0.8 1.8 0.4 1.0 4.4 6.8 160 8.0 161.3 63.6 33.3 71.4 0.87 71.0 68.2
Kate Restovich - 4 26.2 7.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.8 2.0 - - - 29.6 27.3 80.0 - 46.1 35.2
Ella Andree - 4 19.9 7.5 3.8 0.8 2.5 0.2 1.8 5.8 7.2 - - - 47.8 50.0 83.3 - 58.5 54.3
Rayna Miller - 5 22.6 7.4 4.0 1.6 1.4 0.4 1.2 5.2 8.4 115 5.8 55.5 61.5 0 50.0 2.32 60.9 61.5
Ella Notaro - 4 21.8 7.0 2.8 0.0 1.8 0.2 4.2 7.0 0.5 - - - 39.3 0.0 46.2 - 41.5 39.3
Hannah Outlaw - 4 22.9 6.8 4.8 2.2 1.2 0.8 2.2 5.8 7.8 - - - 39.1 25.0 50.0 - 44.9 41.3
Annie Restovich - 4 28.0 6.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 7.8 -0.2 - - - 29.0 25.9 25.0 - 39.7 40.3
Samantha Blaylock - 4 10.4 6.2 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 1.2 5.8 2.8 129 6.8 134.0 34.8 36.8 100.0 1.46 52.3 50.0
Skylar Woodyard - 5 13.0 4.4 2.2 0.2 1.6 0.0 1.2 3.4 3.8 67 4.5 57.2 52.9 50.0 33.3 1.45 56.0 58.8
Ji-Young Hartman - 5 7.5 3.4 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.6 4.4 0.2 64 6.4 73.2 31.8 23.1 0 1.63 38.6 38.6
Kate Passinault - 4 16.3 3.2 3.8 0.2 1.2 0.5 1.5 5.8 1.8 - - - 21.7 0.0 50.0 - 25.4 21.7
London Best - 5 15.4 3.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 0.2 1.2 2.4 5.4 180 9.0 115.2 41.7 0.0 71.4 3.44 49.7 41.7
Halimah Hajhassan - 5 15.1 2.4 3.4 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.4 3.8 4.0 152 7.6 84.4 21.1 0.0 57.1 0.43 27.2 21.1
Nicole Connolly - 4 13.3 2.0 2.2 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 3.5 1.2 - - - 21.4 14.3 50.0 - 26.9 25.0
Sidney Shaw - 5 10.9 2.0 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 2.2 2.8 123 6.5 143.3 36.4 0.0 100.0 2.73 42.1 36.4
Alyssa Matuza - 4 12.4 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.0 - - - 20.0 25.0 33.3 - 32.7 30.0
Caroline Langworthy - 3 4.6 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 - - - 33.3 0 50.0 - 38.7 33.3
Gabby Webb - 4 5.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 1.2 - - - 50.0 0 100.0 - 69.4 50.0
Kenadie Schrock - 3 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 37 2.5 11.3 100.0 100.0 0 0.79 150.0 150.0
Chloe Stanford - 4 3.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 18 2.0 55.5 100.0 0 0 -0.13 100.0 100.0
Kori Dues - 3 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Emma Fonke - 3 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.3 20 2.2 119.7 33.3 0 0 0.65 33.3 33.3
Marley Saunders - 5 16.9 0.4 1.6 1.0 1.2 0.0 0.2 3.6 0.4 131 9.4 85.8 5.6 0.0 0 2.1 5.6 5.6
Karina Peppler - 3 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Cara Kucharski - 3 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Josey Cook - 1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1.0 39.1 0 0 0 0.29 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG