St. John Fisher
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 986 (#264) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 981 (#354) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 975 (#526) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -3.4 (#229) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -7.8 (#467) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.910 (#238) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.633 (#309) | NetEff +3.8 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.820 (#260) | AdjNet +13.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.827 (#256) | AdjNet +13.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.666 (#264) | AdjO 68.4 | AdjD 60.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.452 (#471) | AdjO 58.2 | AdjD 60.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.395 (#458) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.401 (#452) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 966 (#361) | RD 100 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Ithaca | L | 52 - 58 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Oswego St. | L | 70 - 78 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Salve Regina | L | 57 - 61 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | SUNY Morrisville | W | 60 - 51 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Rochester (NY) | L | 43 - 67 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Rensselaer | L | 53 - 63 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Hilbert | W | 96 - 34 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | TCNJ | L | 53 - 61 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Husson | W | 63 - 56 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | SUNY Geneseo | L | 65 - 71 |
| 2026-01-13 | @ | Houghton | W | 63 - 62 |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Keuka | W | 76 - 56 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Elmira | W | 54 - 47 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Hartwick | W | 60 - 47 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Russell Sage | L | 44 - 52 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Nazareth | L | 52 - 70 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | SUNY Poly | W | 71 - 56 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Utica | W | 69 - 58 |
| 2026-02-06 | vs | SUNY Geneseo | L | 34 - 64 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | SUNY Brockport | L | 84 - 91 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presleigh Brunner | - | 20 | 34.5 | 15.2 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 14.8 | 7.7 | 47 | 2.9 | 12.5 | 41.1 | 30.9 | 81.6 | 1.04 | 47.9 | 44.6 |
| Hannah Ferguson | - | 20 | 32.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 51 | 2.8 | 16.9 | 48.6 | 35.8 | 65.7 | 0.29 | 58.0 | 56.6 |
| Natalie Mai | - | 19 | 19.8 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 8 | 0.5 | 6.6 | 37.3 | 35.7 | 65.8 | -0.63 | 49.8 | 46.6 |
| Valerosa Gambitta | - | 20 | 30.7 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 61 | 3.6 | 16.7 | 41.9 | 19.6 | 65.5 | 1.06 | 47.6 | 45.3 |
| Danielle Seamon | - | 20 | 21.3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 13 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 33.3 | 29.2 | 55.0 | -0.94 | 38.5 | 36.6 |
| Payton O'Dell | - | 18 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 26 | 2.4 | 28.4 | 36.8 | 25.0 | 75.0 | 0.86 | 46.5 | 37.5 |
| Julia Perales | - | 16 | 30.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 52 | 3.7 | 18.0 | 25.3 | 22.5 | 66.7 | 1.9 | 34.8 | 33.7 |
| Alexa Gibson | - | 18 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 35 | 2.2 | 78.8 | 41.7 | 0.0 | 80.0 | -1.77 | 49.3 | 41.7 |
| Tanleigh Bestine | - | 4 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 9 | 3.0 | 440.8 | 57.1 | 100.0 | 25.0 | -0.03 | 57.0 | 71.4 |
| Breanna Heidt | - | 18 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 13 | 0.8 | 8.7 | 34.6 | 0 | 75.0 | 1.24 | 49.2 | 34.6 |
| Rachael Hager | - | 6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 22 | 5.5 | 285.4 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 62.5 | 62.5 |
| Leah Khuu | - | 13 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 15 | 1.9 | 155.2 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 0.88 | 36.7 | 27.3 |
| Mary Marrapese | - | 10 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 27 | 3.9 | 48.4 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | -0.22 | 31.1 | 29.2 |
| Ashley Pavan | - | 5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 8 | 2.7 | 82.8 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.26 | 29.1 | 16.7 |
| Lindsay Martin | - | 3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | -4 | -1.3 | -41.4 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.26 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Madeline Broderick | - | 11 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 0.2 | 13.0 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 1.02 | 28.4 | 27.3 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG